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All Da King's Men

Climate, Change

By David King Published: November 5, 2013

President Obama signed an executive order called "Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change". The order was pretty vague, but it's clear that our President believes something bad is going to happen/is happening regarding the weather. I can't really blame him. Lots of climate scientists have been sounding the alarm bell, and it's true that the planet has warmed a degree or so over the last century.

The earth has always warmed and cooled throughout it's multi-billion year history, but climate scientists like those at the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say this time things are different. They say rising levels of a minor greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), which comprises roughly 0.038% of the earth's atmosphere, is driving the warming now, and the cause of the rising CO2 levels is that scourge of the earth we call - mankind. Thus, we have to do something about it, and thus President Obama's vague executive order.

While I'm sure the UN has no nefarious purposes whatsoever (one world government, a new world order), there is one teensy weensy, Obamacare-like glitch in the IPCC's climate projections - they have been dead wrong for the last 15 years. Global warming has essentially stopped, which seems odd when CO2 levels are still rising. Here is what has occurred, based upon new peer-reviewed research:

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases. 

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

Despite this "pause" in global warming, and despite the fact that nearly all of the 138 IPCC climate predictions were wrong, the latest IPCC report upgraded it's certainty that man-made global warming is occurring. The IPCC is more certain that ever. I'm no climatologist, but...does this seem strange to anyone else ? Usually, when I'm wrong about something, it weakens my resolve about my proposition, it doesn't strengthen it. Not so with the IPCC.

Now, before I'm accused of being a climate change DENIER (heretic !!!), a flat-earther who hates science, or slapped with any of the other disparaging, thought-stopping, demonization labels that are currently in vogue with the climeratti...that is not the case. I believe CO2 probably has had an effect on the climate. I just don't know how much (and from the recent data, neither does the IPCC). Because of this, I've been reluctant to buy into the doomsday scenarios, such as the one Al Gore painted in his scary movie, An Inconvenient Truth. Unlike Gore, my mind merely remains open.

Getting back to what caused the global warming pause:

Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave,  in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience.

In similar fashion, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades. Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years.

According to Curry and Wyatt, the theory may explain both the warming pause and why the computer models did not forecast it.

 Aha !, say the global warmers. These cycles may explain the temporary halt in global warming, but they do not explain away our CO2, man-made greenhouse gas theory either. We are still correct.

On this point, the global warmers MAY be correct, but Curry and Wyatt's findings have other implications:

It also means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave.

DOH !!!

You mean there could be factors involved in global warming/cooling OTHER than man-made CO2 ??? Who woulda thunk it ? I always knew the answer to that question was 'YES', which is why I've been reluctant to jump on the climate change bandwagon, and why I've always been happy to report any "inconvenient" climate change data. I thought presenting ALL the data was the scientific way.





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