I feel like the world has turned upside down, because I find myself rooting for Hillary Clinton to capture the Democratic nomination, even though I'm certain she will be a more difficult candidate for John McCain to beat in november. Then again, I'm not that thrilled with McCain either. If you had told me a year ago that I'd be rooting for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination, I'd have asked you what you were smoking. How times have changed.
Hillary Clinton won a 10 point victory over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania on tuesday, adding to her impressive list of big state victories. Those states now include California, Texas, Ohio, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and if they hadn't been disenfranchised, Florida and Michigan. She cut over 200,000 votes from Obama's popular vote lead, and if Florida and Michigan had counted, she'd be leading in the popular vote, and neck and neck in delegates. The picture would be drastically different. If the Dems ran their primaries the way this country votes in the general election, using the electoral college, Hillary would already have the nomination wrapped up. The contest would be over. In the general election, a candidate who won all those aforementioned states would be the president, end of story. That's a virtual certainty.
But this is the Democrats, so Barack Obama still has a huge lead. Go figure. Nobody can screw up an election like the Dems. If ever there was a year that favored Democrats in the general election, this is it. Yet they still may nominate Barack and blow it.
As Democratic consultant Doug Schoen put it, "If I told you somebody was winning California, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan and Florida and was not winning the nomination, you'd say something was wrong...And something arguably is not right."
The feeling that something is not right is usually the way I feel about the Democrats these days, especially since they moved so much further to the left. Unfortunately, I have pretty much the same feeling about the Republicans, and for the same reason. Real conservatives are a real minority.
The feeling that something is not right comes from a candidate like Barack Obama, who has no business experience, no management experience, no economic experience, no health care experience, no military experience, and no foreign policy experience. He spent 5 minutes in Congress and then he was running for president. He based his campaign on saying hope and change a lot. Whoopee. He based his campaign on being against Bush policies, but ALL the Democrats do that. Obama based his campaign on his judgement of being against the Iraq war, unlike the candidates he was running against. However, Obama didn't have to vote on that war like the others did. Obama bases his campaign on judgement, then acts offended when his judgement is called into question by his 20-year association with the incendiary Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Are the Dems actually going to nominate this guy just because he's a good public speaker ? You've got to be kidding me. I remember when I was in college, the best speaker in my Speech class was this hyper little guy who was a cokehead. He was really good. Very persuasive. He could, as they used to say, sell a refrigerator to an Eskimo. I wouldn't want him to be the president either.
Obama's vulnerability in the big states needed to win the general election should be a red flag to all Democrats. Even though Obama would take New York and California in the general election, he has a huge problem with big swing state blue collar voters who decide elections. If Obama is nominated, those voters are likely to go to McCain. Obama's big delegate lead over Hillary is largely due to his victories in the smaller caucus states. The bad news for Obama supporters is, those states are mostly Republican states, and McCain is likely to win them in the general election. The states Obama is winning against Hillary are many of the same states that put George Bush in the White House twice.
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