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All Da King's Men

The Polls And Romney's Bad Week

By David King Published: September 24, 2012

Our vaunted mainstream media (aka, Obama supporters) keeps telling us Romney had a really bad week, that his campaign is hanging by a thread. To illlustrate exactly how bad a week Romney had...the latest polls show Romney has gone from being down five points to drawing even with President Obama.

In fact, Romney has had a really bad month. Here's a graphic from Gallup that shows how bad it's been:


Clearly, if things get any worse for Romney....he will become our next President.

Looking at the three most recent polls - Rassmussen has the race tied, Gallup has Obama up by 2 points, and Politico/GWU/Battleground has Obama up by 3.

The mainstream media is ringing the death knell for the Romney campaign...with the polls basically within the margin of error...and we haven't had a single presidential debate yet. Agenda, anyone ?

This is just one of the many reasons I love our mainstream media. The country is on a path to fiscal armaggedon, the economy stinks, and Obama's foreign policy is crumbling...but the media is aghast because Romney said something about the 47%. Shoo-weee !!! It's got them all aflutter. Such a scandal. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my !!! Bring on the next bright, shiny distraction.  'Coming up, Lindsay Lohan is back in trouble again, and then we'll cover Obama partying with Jay-Z and Beyonce !!! He's so cool !!!' And then they'll do a segment about a cute kitty stuck up a tree.

Here's something else our integrity-first mainstream media doesn't bother to tell you. The results of many of the polls are questionable at best.

Here's why the polls could be wrong:

"Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.

Last week's Pew poll shows a ten point lead for President Obama, 51 percent to 41 percent, and the last Democracy Corps poll showing a 50 to 46 Obama lead. LeBoutillier said of the two polls, “in both polls, suddenly the president is at the magic 50 percent of above, which he has not been at really all year in any poll.”

The picture above shows the chart they referred to in discussing the Pew and Democracy Corps polls. In those polls mentioned, they surveyed a larger ratio of Democrats to Republicans among voters than there is believed to be among the likely voters this year. If one over-samples voters of either party over the other one this way, given 90 percent support of members of each party for their party's nominee, it likely results in a survey result that skews the poll by about that percentage in favor of that party's nominee.

Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans."

This oversampling of Democrats isn't necessarily wrong, provided that the sampling matches the demographics of the electorate. If there are eleven percent more Democrats than Republicans among registered voters, then oversampling Democrats by eleven percent would be the proper methodology to use.

Does this explain why Democrats are being oversampled ?

The answer is NO. 

There ARE more people who identify themselves as Democrats (35%) than Republicans (27%), according to the september Gallup party identification poll. That's an 8% edge for the Democrats. The previous month, the Democrats had a 3% edge. In the couple months prior to that, the Democrats had a 2% edge over the GOP in party affiliation. The single biggest voter bloc consists of Independents (36%).

If you average out the last six months of Gallup party identification polls, or even use the last couple years or last couple decades, Democrats have a party identification advantage of only three or four points over the Republicans. Even during the peak Bush-hating, Obama-loving year of 2008,  the Democrats only had a 6% advantage in party identification.Thus, when the Pew poll oversamples Democrats by eleven points, the poll is obviously skewed to favor the Democrats. Even if you give the Democrats the single month 8% advantage, which appears to be a huge outlier historically speaking, Pew still oversampled Democrats. It's no surprise that Obama comes out the big winner in such a biased poll. Pew had Obama winning by ten points and  oversampled Democrats by eleven points.

Pew is far from alone in oversampling Democrats. Many of them do it. A recent NBC poll oversampled Democrats by 7 points, and voila!!!, Obama won that poll by 5 points. A recent CBS/NYT poll oversampled Democrats by 13 points.

In a recent interview with Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown on Hugh Hewitt's show, Mr. Brown hilariously  tried to defend Quinnipiac's oversampling of Democrats by basically saying more Democrats were at home when Quinnipiac called. Seriously, that's what he said. Check it out:

HH: Now what I don’t understand this, so educate me on it, if Democrats only had a three point advantage in Florida in the final turnout measurement in 2008, but in your poll they have a nine point turnout advantage, why is that not a source of skepticism for people?

PB: Well, I mean, clearly there will be some people who are skeptics. This is how we’ve always done our polls. Our record is very good in terms of accuracy. Again, remember, we’re asking people what they consider themselves at the time we call them.

HH: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?

PB: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.

HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?

PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.

HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…

PB: Well, I mean…

HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?

PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.

HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?

PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.

HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

HH: And so what value is this poll if in fact it doesn’t weight for the turnout that’s going to be approximated?

Here we have the Quinnipiac pollster admitting Quinnipiac's poll results are "probably unlikely". But they still publish those polls, while knowingly overpolling Democrats.

In summary, all you Romney voters shouldn't waste your time and effort going to the voting booth on election day, because Obama's going to win regardless. THE SKEWED POLLS SAY SO. THE BIASED MEDIA SAYS SO.

See how that works ??? They are furiously trying to create their own reality, the one they wish to see created, and they are hoping you will fall for the ruse.




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