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Monday morning guesswork

By admin Published: June 26, 2006

Wednesday's NBA Draft is going to be exciting because it is unpredictable.  Usually even if the top pick isn't known, you have a pretty good idea of who's going 1-2 or even 1-2-3.  This year you don't.


I pay little attention to mock drafts and I won't be doing one.  Sure they can be fun, but are just fodder.  A few years ago my boss asked me to do one and I got exactly three right out of 30 and two of those were Dwight Howard going with the No. 1 pick and Emeka Okafor going 2.  I remember I had the Cavs taking Josh Childress with the No. 10 pick as my best guess, which turned out not even being close to being right as he went sixth.  A few months later then general manager Jim Paxson told me he woke up the morning of the draft thinking it would be Childress, too and he obviously had 20 times as much info to guess with.  This year, we're talking about No. 25, even guessing two guys would be a wild stab for anyone.


What I have learned over the last four drafts I've covered is that all Danny Ferry and his two assistants, Chris Grant and Lance Blanks, can do is do as much pre-draft work as possible and rank their players.  Ferry then must call every GM and gauge what it would take to move up or what they're interested in to move down so when things happen there's a basis to make quick trade talks.


Also, I think it is important to point out that just because you may be reading a lot of analysis of these players and what they can bring to various teams, most draft picks don't have much impact on their team in the first year especially outside the top 5 or so.  Sure there's a history of stolen gems to be found later.  Yet the big majority of the later picks, especially second rounders, never see the light of day despite all this hype, rumors and drama now flying through the league.


OK, with all that on the table, here is my current and somewhat-educated thinking as what might take place with the Cavs:


--I think the most prudent thing to do is take a guy that can play point guard at No. 25.  You can always use big people but getting one here would be a project and they already have one of those in Martynas Andriuskevicius.  They need a guy to develop at the position if nothing else.  They aren't going to get a starter (yet) here, so I'd look for a changeup to Eric Snow (a quick guy that can shoot a little) and one with lots of room to grow.


--I wrote a story the other day about rumors surrounding Daniel Gibson.  I have no idea whether they are true, the facts just made sense.  What I do know is that Ferry comes from the Spurs school of keeping a very low profile and going against the grain to find undervalued pieces.  Gibson has been in hiding, so does this make him undervalued and hidden?  Dunno, but I know he was a good player on a great college team.


--The Cavs were still working out lots of PG prospects at the end of last week, which could be an indication that they haven't finalized their board or a smokescreen.  Who's to say?  Here are some guys you can read up on who have a chance to be a Cav: Rajon Rondo, Shannon Brown, Gibson, Mardy Collins, Quincy Douby, Will Blalock, Sergio Rodriguez, Jordan Farmar, Kyle Lowry, Maurice Ager, Guillermo Diaz, and Darius Washington.  Will it be one of those guys? I'd put a modest bet on it with reasonable odds.


--You hear all sorts of rumors of promises given to players.  Teams deny they exist.  Well, they do exist and there's a lot of such talk going on.  There's probably several layers of promises that can be given, all depending on the agents and the mixed agendas.  Ferry is a very respectable and honorable guy and he's worked to further that rep in his first year on the job.  He's also a deep thinker.  If he made a promise to someone to take them, I am sure he would honor it.  But I also think it is questionable why anyone would make a promise with the 25th pick.


--This I know, the Cavs generally do not think this is a deep draft.  Whether that opinion is true or not will be determined later.  But I don't think they are going to harm their roster to get a player.


I hope to have more updates in the next few days.   

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