From the U.S. Energy Information Administration today:
U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Adam Sieminski issued the following comments on EIA’s August 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday:
The full STEO can be downloaded at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
“U.S. drivers could find more savings at the pump in the months ahead as gasoline prices are expected to fall through the end of the year to an average of $3.30 a gallon in December.”
“Driven in large part by record levels of demand for crude oil by U.S. refineries over the last month, the spot price discount for West Texas Intermediate crude oil to dated Brent crude oil was cut nearly in half since June to $3 a barrel in July.“
“The WTI to Brent discount is expected to increase to an average of $10 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year as refinery runs decrease heading into the refinery turnaround season and U.S. crude oil supplies continue to grow.”
“U.S. oil production next year is expected to be the highest since 1972. The United States and Canada will provide most of the increase in global non-OPEC oil production over the next two years.”
“After reaching a peak in May, estimated global unplanned crude oil and other liquids production outages fell for the second month in a row to 3.2 million barrels per day in July. An increase in unplanned production outages of 200,000 barrels per day in Iraq between May and July was more than offset by 200,000 bbl/d and 150,000 bbl/d reductions in outages in Libya and Nigeria, respectively.“
“Natural gas production growth this year and mild weather have contributed to stronger gas injections into storage and lower gas prices this summer. Natural gas storage injections continue on pace for a record refill of 2.6 trillion cubic feet by the end of October. EIA is raising its forecast for onshore marketed natural gas production this year and in 2015, and lowering its natural gas price outlook. “
“For the first time ever, the amount of U.S. electricity generated from wind, solar and other nonhydropower renewables is on track in 2014 to exceed the level of electricity produced from electric-generating dams and other hydropower on an annual basis.”
“Renewable sources, including hydropower, biomass, wind, solar, and geothermal energy, are expected to generate 13% of U.S. electricity supplies in 2014.”
“High natural gas fuel costs earlier this year encouraged the electricity industry to use relatively more coal for power generation and less natural gas. Natural gas prices have moderated in recent months, slowing the projected shift to coal-fired generation for the rest of the year. Coal's share of U.S. electricity generation in the second half of 2014 will average almost 41% compared with about 39% last year.”
“U.S. coal consumption is expected to increase this year because of more coal use by the power sector in response to higher natural gas prices.”
“U.S. coal exports will be lower this year because of weaker global coal demand growth, lower foreign coal prices, and higher coal production from other major coal-exporting countries.”
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