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Ohio Utica Shale

Moderate weather lowers natural gas futures, Bloomberg says

By Bob Downing Published: July 5, 2013

From Bloomberg News:

Natural gas futures may decline next week as moderating weather limits demand for the power-plant fuel, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Five of 12 analysts, or 42 percent, predicted that futures will fall on the New York Mercantile Exchange through July 12. Four, or 33 percent, said gas will stay the same and three predicted prices will increase. Last week, 53 percent of participants said gas would decline.

The region east of the Mississippi River, including Chicago, New York and Washington, may have near-normal temperatures from July 13 to July 17, according to Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC. Increases in gas stockpiles have topped five-year averages for five consecutive weeks, Energy Information Administration data show.

“The weather is warming up but it’s not hot enough to develop a significant amount of demand for this time of the year and the injections are going to continue to be bearish,” said Kent Bayazitoglu, an analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston.

Natural gas futures gained 12.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $3.69 per million British thermal units during the first three days of this week on the Nymex. The futures are up 10 percent this year.

The market was closed yesterday in observance of the July 4th U.S. Independence Day holiday. Any electronic trades will be booked for today.

Weather Outlook

The normal average reading for July 15 in New York City is about 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 Celsius), according to the National Weather Service. In Boston, it’s 74; Chicago, 74; and in Houston, 84.

Power plants will account for 32 percent of U.S. gas consumption this year and are the biggest users of the fuel in the lower 48 states, said the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

U.S. gas stockpiles increased 72 billion cubic feet to 2.605 trillion in the week ended June 28, above the five-year average gain for the period of 71 billion, according to EIA data. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg predicted a gain of 74 billion.

A deficit to the average narrowed for a fifth week, to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent the previous period. Supplies were 15.9 percent belowlevels a year earlier and the least since March 1.

The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 50 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction.

Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week.Moderating weather

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Ohio Department of Natural Resources' Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management State agency Web site.

ODNR Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management. State drilling permits. List is updated weekly.

ODNR Division of Geological Survey.

Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

Ohio State University Extension.

Ohio Farm Bureau.

Ohio Oil and Gas Association, a Granville-based group that represents 1,500 Ohio energy-related companies.

Ohio Oil & Gas Energy Education Program.

Energy In Depth, a trade group.

Marcellus and Utica Shale Resource Center by Ohio law firm Bricker & Eckler.

Utica Shale, a compilation of Utica shale activities.

Landman Report Card, a site that looks at companies involved in gas and oil leases.FracFocus, a compilation of chemicals used in fracking individual wells as reported voluntarily by some drillers.

Chesapeake Energy Corp,the Oklahoma-based firm is the No. 1 driller in Ohio.

Rig Count Interactive Map by Baker Hughes, an energy services company.

Shale Sheet Fracking, a Youngstown Vindicator blog.

National Geographic's The Great Shale Rush.

The Ohio Environmental Council, a statewide eco-group based in Columbus.

Buckeye Forest Council.

Earthjustice, a national eco-group.

Stop Fracking Ohio.

People's Oil and Gas Collaborative-Ohio, a grass-roots group in Northeast Ohio.

Concerned Citizens of Medina County, a grass-roots group.

No Frack Ohio, a Columbus-based grass-roots group.

Fracking: Gas Drilling's Environmental Threat by ProPublica, an online journalism site.

Penn State Marcellus Center.

Pipeline, blog from Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Marcellus shale drilling.

Allegheny Front, environmental public radio for Western Pennsylvania.