I should take a minute to mention where I have a rooting interest tonight:
Best picture -- "The Hurt Locker," but would be happy for "Up in the Air." And would take "Precious" or "Up" over "Avatar." Like you, I have read the speculation that "Inglourious Basterds" will ride preferential voting into the best-picture Oscar, and I keep running into people who love it, including my tax preparer, but a win would be wrong.
Best actor -- Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker," but would be OK with George Clooney, although even he says he voted for Jeff Bridges.
Best actress -- Can't speak to the seeming groundswell for Carey Mulligan because I haven't seen "An Education" yet. But Streep in "Julie & Julia" was better than Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side."
Supporting actor -- Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds." Didn't care for the movie but he was terrific.
Supporting actress -- Mo'Nique for "Precious" although I wouldn't kick if Anna Kendrick won for "Up in the Air.'
Adapted screenplay -- "Up in the Air," because it's the closest we get to Walter Kirn's words.