I watched about 20 minutes of the Freakathon known as the Google-Fox GOP presidential candidates "debate" last night. All I could stand to watch was 20 minutes.
The Reverend's take after 3 GOP debates.....
It appears as if the GOP now has a two person race. Mitt Romney versus Rick Perry. The RealClearPolitics.com site has Rick Perry up an average of 7 points over Romney....an average of 28.4% to 20.6%.
Those favoring the also-rans, Ron Paul (8.9%), Michele Bachmann (7.7%), Newton Gingrich (6.6%), Herman Cain (5.6%), Rick Santorum (2%), and Jon Huntsman (1.4%),.....will wind up telling the tale in the actual GOP primaries next year. For my money, I'm guessing that support for Paul, Bachmann, Santorum and, perhaps, Gingrich.....will be thrown to Rick Perry. Call it the Crazed Tea Party Effect....but if a Republican primary were held today with only Perry and Romney on the ticket.....I believe Perry would win.
So, will Governor Rick Perry be representing the Republican Party in next year's matchup against President Obama?
Although Perry is loved by the self-radicalized Tea Party bunch...and Romney not so much (once was pro-choice, he's a Mormon, the Massachusetts Romneycare thing).....Perry, with his likeness to W., his authoritarian ways, his view of Social Security, his glibness about secession and the Constitution....is unelectable.
The only way Rick Perry could be elected to the presidency is if our national economy falls into depression between now and next November. In a perfect storm....purposely caused by congressional Republicans....where unemployment spiked to over 10% and the markets fell further.....I suppose it would be possible for Perry to be elected by a worn down and disgusted electorate.
But not likely.
That leaves the "electable" Mitt Romney. If you've been paying attention, you know that Republican establishment figures like Karl Rove, Dick Cheney and MSNBC's resident establishment Republican, Rick Scarborough......favor Romney over Perry because of the electability factor. If you also remember the 2008 GOP primary race, you'll know that Mike Huckabee offered pretty strong competition to John McCain in the early primaries, deadlocked with Johnny Mac as late as June 2008. Yet, McCain was ultimately determined to be the most electable 2008 GOP candidate.
Something similar will most likely play out this cycle.
Which, I think, will leave self-radicalized malcontents in the Tea Party....unimpressed. Despite the unity of purpose within the insurrectionist, Know Nothings to remove Barack Obama from the presidency, Mitt Romney is simply not going to excite the excitables. Also, too....there's the Mormon thing.
Evangelical Christians vote Republican. In the 2010 midterms, 78% of evangelical voters voted for Republicans. Evangelical Christians, no matter what Village assh*les on teevee tell you, consider Mormonism to be a cult....unChristian. It's a matter of faith. And if anything is true today about the Republican Party...it is that the Fox-imbibers who turn out to vote for Republicans are faith based.
What's a wingnut political party to do?
Romney is the only candidate who may be electable. But his potential voters would have to ask Jesus for forgiveness if they voted for a Mormon. And that leads me to what I suggest will be a very big story after the 2012 GOP primaries. The GOP's vice-presidential pick.
Johnny Mac, foolishly and embarrassingly, chose the empty-headed, opportunist, Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The reason then was obvious. After Bush, Republican establishment characters, like McCain, did not really enthuse the grassroots faith-basers. McCain's political advisers knew that without a bit of catnip for wingnuts on the ticket, Republican voters might just stay home. With a true winger on the ticket, the establishment McCain at least had a chance.
The same dynamic, I suggest, will be at work this coming election cycle. With a Mormon at the top of the ticket....which seems to me to be inevitable....Romney's vice presidential choice will actually be more important this time around than McCain's choice of the Quitter was in 2008.
The perfect vice presidential candidate will be a bonafide Winger who makes evangelical voters forget about the bad Mormon taste in their mouths from voting for Romney. The GOP vice presidential candidate cannot be another establishment Republican, like, say, Rob Portman (R-OH), who is often mentioned in lists of potential GOP vp candidates. It could be young Marco Rubio from Florida, but I think young Marco is waiting for 2016, when he will dash onto the scene as the face of the "new and improved" GOP.
I'm looking at Governor Nikki Haley from South Carolina. Attractive, young, and a true evangelical winger. Like Palin, but with some self-discipline...and not so silly or ignorant. In today's teevee-dominated culture a Romney-Haley ticket would bring forth all of the worst from our corporate overlords in media. The posing and the gushing, and the unbearable, tedious bullsh*t from the Village will, most likely, be enough to gag a maggot.....but inevitable from a corrupt, inside-the-Beltway bunch who are wired to favor (tax-cutting) Republicans.
I still think Obama will be re-elected. But if the Perfect Storm being brewed up right now by congressional Republicans to damage our national economy further hits us head on leading up to next November.....Mitt Romney could be our next president. But the only way for that to happen is if a full-throated, faith baser with telegenic skills, like Governor Nikki Haley, is chosen as Romney's running mate.
What say ye?
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