The Iowa pre-caucus polling was very accurate. Both Mike Huckabee, for the Republicans, and Barak Obama, for the Democrats, won by 8 points.
Nothing surprising, really. But here is last night's real story. The story that Knee Padders everywhere will avoid repeating.
What is that story?
Over 220,588 Iowans caucused with the Democrats last night. There were 124,000 in 2004.
Over 114,000 Iowans caucused with the Republicans last night. There were 87.666 in 2000, the last GOP contested caucus.
Here's Iowa's statewide voter breakdown by party....
Republican: 574,571 (30.1%)
Democratic: 600,572 (31.4%)
Undeclared: 737,054 (38.5%)
That.....is a huge story.
Yes, the media has had all the "debates", and a lot more media attention has been given to this primary season, candidates, etc. Much more attention has been paid to this primary season than any I can remember. So, interest, and thusly, turnout, would be expected to be higher. BUT....that doesn't explain why TWICE as many Democratic caucus goers came out this year compared to 2004. The Republican caucus goers did NOT show up last night in Iowa by double their 2000 number.
Here's the point. It's January....it's colder than the proverbial witch's anatomical part.....and it's on a Thursday night.....and twice as many Democratic enthusiasts showed up than four years ago......not so for the Republicans.
We are only a few weeks away from knowing. One caucus does not an election make. Will movement conservatives be able to attract independent voters away from the very appealing Barak Obama? Will "Villager" Democrats be able to slow down the momentum building Obama? Lots of questions.
BUT....one thing we know for sure from last night's Democratic turnout.....the Republican Party is in trouble, big trouble. With Democratic caucus goers turning out in exponentially higher numbers last night in Iowa than they did four years ago, it looks like Americans have had enough of the Republican lies, the corruption, the arrogance, the faux religiosity, the disgusting policies and all the rest of the scum left behind by the worst criminal administration in American history.
The groundswell has begun. Americans are willing to come out in record numbers for Democrats, not Republicans. When this groundswell crests, America will have chosen a Democratic president, probably with a mandate, and a much more Democratic Congress.
Here's how one writer this morning describes it....
What this portends for Obama as a national candidate is something truly special. He’s not only proven that he can draw the support of independents and open-minded Republicans. He’s the one guy who can make the Democratic pie higher, bringing new, unlikely voters into the fold. If he could replicate this kind of support among young people in a general election, it’s game over. Link
That's the story out of Iowa last night. Next up...New Hampshire.
UPDATE: I agree with this Booman piece. Especially this....
The Democratic Party just found El Dorado...the magic formula that vastly increases turnout. We've got the polling advantage and the money advantage...and now we have a candidate that can blast turnout percentages into the stratosphere. That's the formula for erasing the blue/red divide and building a truly progressive ruling majority that can last decades.
Edwards and Clinton will fight on, but independents in New Hampshire are going to give Obama a twenty-point victory there, and then it's on to South Carolina where the black community will vote as they have never voted before.
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