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Predictions And Mandates

By The Reverend Published: November 4, 2008

Immediately upon winning re-election in 2004, George W. Bush, all cocky acting, said this....

"I earned capital in this campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it," Bush told reporters. "It is my style." Link

"When you win, there is ... a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view," Bush said. "And that's what I intend to tell Congress, that I made it clear what I intend to do as the president; now let's work."

Here is the vote count from 2004....

Bush.....62,040,610......52%

Kerry....59,028,444......48%

Bush's first effort, after winning by 4% or so, was to change Social Security, one of the most popular programs ever in America. He failed miserably. Four years later he stands at a whopping 24% approval rating.

Barack Obama will receive 70 million votes today for president out of, I predict, 135 million cast. He will win 53% of the vote and defeat John McCain by a margin of, at least, 6%. The electoral college will wind up Obama 350-McCain 188. It won't be close, we'll know by 9 P.M. eastern time. My predictions are purposely conservative. I predict Ohio will go for Obama by 1% or less.

Democrats will have 56 senators and 270 House members after tonight. Significant pickups but not filibuster proof. New Democratic senators will come from Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Minnesota could go to Al Franken and there is an outside chance that Mississippi will also fall to the Democrat, but those are wild cards and so I didn't count them. Landrieu, the Democratic senator in Louisiana, will retain her seat, however narrowly.

Republicans acted like George W. Bush had been given a mandate in 2004 with his small margin of victory over John Kerry. So much so that Bush rolled out a plan in the Spring of 2005 to partially privatize Social Security, of all things. To Georgie and the GOP a 4% win was a mandate from the people.

Barack Obama will win the 2008 election by a larger percentage, perhaps twice the margin, that Bush had over Kerry. Obama, according to Republican mandate calculations, will have a larger mandate from the American people to govern, than W. ever had. That will mean that Obama's primary goals of ending the Occupied Territories of Iraq, health care for all, a new tax policy, and a new energy policy....should be swept through Congress in the first 6 months of Obama's first term.

W. had the audacity to attempt to radically alter the most popular American government program in history after his 4% win. A change in Social Security that Americans never wanted in the first place. How much more so, then, should Obama's highly favored programs be implemented with his 6%, or greater, win over McCain.

One final prediction....

The Democratic win tonight will be monumental. It will mark a huge shift in American political clout. The wave of discontent with the GOP rose in 2006 when the Democrats regained the House and the Senate. Today it will crest and crash all over the modern conservative movement, drowning out any hopes for a quick recovery. Democrats will be running our federal government for a good while.

This will naturally mean that Republicans still in Congress will do everything possible to clog the process and obstruct the progress. The one theme of these obstructionists, the one talking point we'll start hearing tomorrow will be that Obama's presidency is, somehow, illegitimate. Somehow, Obama, winning by more than their once Dear Leader did in 2004, will not be legitimate enough of a president to aggressively pursue his agenda.

Tomorrow, the real battle begins.

P.S. Earlier in the year I had predicted that Obama might win 40 states. While still within the range of possibility, I don't expect it to happen. However, there is no question whatsoever that my earlier prediction of an Obama landslide will prove to be accurate.

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