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The Silver Bullet

By The Reverend Published: October 3, 2012

I can choose to stay at home and watch the first 2012 presidential debate tonight....or....go see ZZ Top at the Civic Theater.

It took me all of ....oh, I don't know,....20 seconds.....to decide.

So, in the morning I'll give you my take on the debate, after reading the transcript...and I'll let you know if the little old band from Texas....still knows how to get down and get with it. How, how, how, how....

It's important for he-said-he-said main media to not alienate any of its audience.....and because of that corrupt paradigm....most of corporate media will not explain the actual state of the presidential race. Instead, articles and headlines "inform" that the race is "close", "a nail biter", "an extremely competitive race", etc.

Those kinds of media hooks might help media consumers stay tuned to find out what happens next....which is exactly why main media works to keep both sides hopes alive. But....sorry, it's not the truth. The 2012 presidential election contest is not going to be close. No nailbiter.

That is exactly why a mousy little prick by the name of George Will wrote yesterday....

...the nation, which is generally reluctant to declare a president a failure — thereby admitting that it made a mistake choosing him — seems especially reluctant not to give up on the first African-American president. If so, the 2012 election speaks well of the nation’s heart, if not its head.

American voters are stupid and yet good hearted. These good hearted, stupid voters feel sorry for the poor affirmative action black president.....and will re-elect him out of sympathy....because, you know, he's black.

That's what ugly, yet highly-educated-with-a-good-vocabulary, racism looks like. Will...for numerous reasons...should have been fired a long, long time ago.

But what caused Will to regurgitate his racist vomit now? Because he realizes that Romney has no chance of defeating President Obama.

The truth is...and has been for some time...that this election will be an electoral college blowout favoring President Obama. Forget the talk about the closeness of the national popular vote. Popular vote counts don't determine who wins the presidency. Ask Justice Scalia.

It is the electoral vote count that matters....nothing else. And in the calculations which make up that electoral college count, it has been determined that 10 "swing" states will decide the presidency this year. The remaining 40 states are either solidly blue or solidly red.

And it is here that the Silver Bullet comes into play. You see, George Will, Erick Erickson, Rushbo, David Brooks, Fox News et al, are fully aware of Nate Silver's 538.com electoral calculations. Silver's calculations are not based on one or two this-party-leaning, that-party-leaning polls. Nate uses complex algorithms which include every available piece of empirical data affecting the presidential election. In 2008, his predictions, using all those mathematical equations, were impeccably accurate.

The swing states of significance are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. In all of those swing states except for one, North Carolina, Obama has a solid lead. In North Carolina....it's literally a dead heat.

As of this morning, Nate Silver's chance-of-winning percentages are.....Nevada 86% Obama win, Colorado 74% Obama win, Iowa 75% Obama win, Wisconsin 89% Obama win, Ohio 85% Obama win, Pennsylvania 97.5% Obama win, New Hampshire 88% Obama win, Virginia 78% Obama win, North Carolina 63% Romney win, and Florida 68% Obama win.

Silver's cumulative electoral college vote projection as of today is Obama 318.6 to Romney's 219.4 with 270 needed to win. Obama's chance of re-election is now 84.7%....Romney's chance of upsetting Obama 15.3%. In addition, Obama leads in the popular vote projections by 3.9%, but more importantly, Obama has been trending upward while Romney has been trending downward.

Naturally, one can simply dismiss the Silver Bullet.....after all, Nate Silver works for the NY Times and all GOP voters just know that the NY Times is hopelessly liberal.

Some might argue that yes, Obama is leading right now, but there's a long, long way to go yet to get to November 6th. The debates might change everything....or perhaps some significant event, as they say, "on the ground" will cause Obama's chances to implode.

Sure, anything can happen....but I would remind folks thinking along those lines: Romney has NEVER led in any national polling. Obama's lead has spiked SINCE the conventions. Voting has already begun in many states. And Romney's awful 47% comment is just now sinking into the electoral psyche.

To those who might argue that Mitt's debate performances will alter the race dramatically....because, you know, Romney is such a great debater....and Obama is some weakling when it comes to debating....let me say.....don't kid yourself. Mitt Romney, no matter what the venue, doesn't come across as an average American who identifies with the concerns of middle and lower class families....he just doesn't.

Finally, Mitt Romney has chosen to campaign using deception and lies. "You didn't build that", "Obama sympathizes with attackers", "Obama is taking work requirements out of welfare", "Obama has gutted Medicare"...etc. Romney's campaign has FEATURED these lies for months now. So far, when confronted with his lies, Mitt has dismissed them as partisan shots, or changed the subject, or blamed the media.....but tonight, he will have to own up to his lies and deception-based campaign. Tonight, there's no Foxian shield to hide behind.

Tonight.....while I'm singing along with Tres Hombres at the Civic....Mitt Romney will once again disappoint American voters...as he has at virtually every important point of his general election campaign, thus securing his humiliating loss-to-come.

P.S. To those who wonder why I'm waxing all confident and cocky this early about Obama's imminent re-election.....let me give you a simple answer: Mitt Romney is the worst presidential election candidate in my (as of October 1st) 63 years.

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