It's time to summarize where we are in the Democratic primary and make predictions about what will happen next. We're still a few weeks away from the Pennsylvania primary and if the Knee Padders' nightly sputterings are any indication, nothing, and I mean nothing, of substance will be shared with American teevee viewers during those few weeks. The Pad Media is, predictably, microscoping every vowel and consonant from Clinton and Obama while simultaneously conducting solemn and oh-so-serious hero-worship services for the POW presidential wannabe, John S. McCain.
What will we witness as we go forward in this historic election cycle?
Obama will win the pledged delegate count, the popular vote count, and eventually, the super-duper delegate count.....and that will lead, sadly for Hillary....to the end of here aspirational road. It may be ugly, there may be some hard feelings, but that's how it's going to end.
The fraying thread Hillary is trying to hang on to is the far-flung idea, I think, that Obama still has hidden crimes or conspiracies yet to be uncovered that may disqualify him somehow. Her surrogates' argument that the Wright issue makes Obama unelectable, I think, holds no water. The polling after the Wright topic exploded shows little movement. Obama's leadership and trust numbers demonstrate that Obama is the best candidate. I realize polls are not flawless predictors but it's the TREND that tells the story.
Hillary has a 700,000 popular vote deficit to make up.....virtually a mathematical impossiblity. The pledged delegate category simply can't be won by Mrs. Clinton. Impossible. That only leaves the super-dupers. Obama has already slashed Hillary's advantage down to 40-50 from a previous 200+ difference and every sign points to this continuing.
That only leaves the fiction of Obama's unelectability because of Jeremiah Wright ....or....some new bombshell information. Without doubt the Republicans with their 527 hounds will go all in on the Wright topic. However, as far as Democrats are concerned today, the Wright controversy doesn't disqualify Obama.
The contestants, McCain and Obama, will begin their general election campaigning.
Here are two of my predictions of what will happen then.....
First prediction: Democrats, record primary turnout Democrats, will rally wildly for Obama. Far and away the majority of current Hillary supporters will stand with the Illinois Senator. The crescendo of support will build to a frenzy by fall.....huge, record breaking crowds will gather all over this country to hear Obama and his audacity of hope for change message. With his huge small donor supporters list, Obama will raise money at will. His national teevee ads will flood the airwaves. Barack Obama will pick a helpful vice presidential candidate and the August convention will inspire even more Americans with the belief that, yes, we can change America for the better and Obama's the right person to start the long process of repairing the damage from the last 8 years. The polling will show McCain losing by at least 10% going into the November vote, maybe more.
Second prediction (some hyperbole): Many Republican brand names will sit on the sidelines and allow the 527 homicide bombers to strap on their belts of lying propaganda and then explode them all over Knee Pad Medialand. I can't state the importance of this enough. In spite of these domestic political insurgent actions....Obama's polling numbers will stay solid, just as they have against Hillary after she, her husband and her surrogates tried, albeit mildly, to hurt Obama's chances by detonating racial smear-by-association bombs.
In part 2 I will go into the weeds of triangulation and swiftboating to show not only what the Clinton's have done in the primary race but also to predict what those conservative 527 groups, harnessed to Knee Pad Medialand, will do as we get into the general election campaign.
About This Blog