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According to the latest Fox news poll, Barack Obama now leads Mitt Romney nationally by a 49-40% margin. Worse yet for still-hopeful conservative voters is that independent voters now favor Obama over Romney by 11 percentage points. The polling interviews were conducted August 5th through August 7th. Keep in mind....Fox news is the communications network for the Republican Party.
At CNN, their latest polling gives Barack Obama a 52-45% national lead over Mr. Romney with independent voters choosing Obama by 53%-42%, an 11 point advantage. In May of this year, Romney's unfavorable number among independent voters stood at 40%, now it's at 52%....a 12% increase.
Nate Silver....the 538.com polling algorithm-king....has the electoral college at 301 Obama to 236 Romney with Obama's chance of being re-elected at 72%. Silver has the national numbers at Obama 50.8% to Romney's 48.2%...a much closer situation than seen in either Fox or CNN's latest polling.
Talking Points Memo's PollTracker....which, like Nate Silver, aggregates dozens of polls daily, has Obama leading nationally 49.2%-43.3% over Mitt. with an electoral college count of 317 Obama, 191 Romney.
I have noticed since the 2006 midterms how much more accurate polling numbers have been. I realize that polls are polls...and can change tomorrow....but I don't think there is any doubt about Mitt Romney's rapidly diminishing chances to unseat President Obama. This morning's announcement of Paul Ryan as Mitt's VP candidate....won't change this negative momentum.
Romney has earned those lower polling numbers. His overseas trip was a disaster filled with unforced errors. Mitt's refusal to release more years of tax returns is taking a toll on potential voters who may think Mitt has stuff to hide. Romney's stiff and, at times, robotic, ways appear unnatural and a bit weird. If there's a genuinely warm and approachable human being behind Mitt's hair and welded-on smile.......it's not translating to voters.
Furthermore, Romney's early-on reputation as a flip-flopper has now developed into a full metal jacket indictment of Mitt's honesty. Mitt's campaign, and Mitt himself, have repeatedly attempted to deceive and mislead voters with Obama phrases ripped entirely out of context. All works of deception.
Meanwhile,....and I think this is Mitt's largest unforced error....Romney has refused to offer any specific solutions to the nation's problems. And when Mitt has offered something other than generalities, for example: with his tax plan,.....the specifics don't ad up in any world other than a faith-based world.
Now with Romney's pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate.....I had predicted S. Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.....the GOP Gordon-Gekko, Wall Street, 1% ticket is complete. Mitt's campaign is now calling Romney-Ryan...."America's comeback team." Not bloody likely.
Picking Ryan won't help Mitt much, if at all. Ryan's supply-side plan to voucherize Medicare will cost seniors $6000 more per year out of pocket. And the Medicare money saved will be handed out to the top 1% in the form of yet another massive tax cut on America's wealthiest. After Ryan slashes the safety net to threads....his projections won't eliminate the budget deficit for decades....and yet, somehow, faith-basers and Villagers consider Ryan to be a Serious Republican.
The GOP ticket is now complete. Two voodoo-economics believing corporate shills fully prepared to serve the top .1%....no matter what. Two GOP deadenders whose ideas have long ago passed their expiration date. Been there and done that.....and it was a miserable failure...see:Economy 2001-2009. (Hint....lowest job growth of any two term president in the modern era.)
Sure, the two political conventions could alter the political tide with some unexpected turn-of-events....and sure, there could be an "October surprise" of one sort or another.....but I'm thinking the November script has been written...and like it or not, Barack Obama will be president for four more years.