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How to predict seeding in the MAC Tournament

By mrasor Published: February 11, 2010

Men's basketball
Here are the current MAC standings:
MAC East Kent State - 9-2 Akron - 8-3 Miami - 8-3 Buffalo - 6-5 Bowling Green - 5-6 Ohio - 4-6
MAC West Central Michigan - 6-4 Ball State - 6-5 Western Michigan - 5-6 Eastern Michigan - 4-7 Northern Illinois - 4-7 Toledo - 0-11
Combined (with seeding) (1) Kent State (2) Central Michigan (MAC West winner gets No. 2 seed) (3) Akron (4) Miami ---------- (5) Ball State (6) Buffalo (7) Western Michigan (8 ) Bowling Green (9) Ohio (10) Northern Illinois (11) Eastern Michigan (12) Toledo
So how do we predict the rest of the season? I have a method. If you won by eight or more at home, you'll win on the road. If you lost at home or won by seven or fewer, you'll lose on the road. There are really only six teams in the running for a first-round bye, so I'll apply my test to each...
Kent State, Current record 9-2, Predicted record 13-3, Predicted seed: No. 1 @UB - WIN Ohio - WIN @BG - LOSS Miami - WIN @Akron - WIN
Central Michigan, Current record 6-4, Predicted record 9-7, Predicted seed: No. 2 @Ohio - LOSS (for argument's sake, the Bobcats are favored by seven at The Convo tonight) UT - WIN @BSU - WIN @NIU - LOSS WMU - LOSS @EMU - WIN
Akron, Current record 8-3, Predicted record 11-5, Predicted seed: No. 3 Ohio - WIN @Miami - WIN UB - LOSS @BG - WIN Kent - LOSS
Miami, Current record 8-3, Predicted record 10-6, Predicted seed: No. 4 @BG - WIN Akron - LOSS @Ohio - WIN @Kent - LOSS UB - LOSS
Buffalo, Current record 6-5, Predicted record 9-7, Predicted seed: No. 5 Kent - LOSS BG - WIN @Akron - WIN Ohio - LOSS @Miami - WIN
Ball State, Current record 6-5, Predicted record 8-8, Predicted seed: No. 6 @NIU - LOSS CMU - LOSS EMU - WIN @UT - WIN @WMU - LOSS
Obviously, this formula is anything but precise. And in college basketball, teams get hot (see Miami) and cold (see Buffalo), and it's all subject to fluctuation.
After tonight, everybody will have played everybody else once and only once. The MAC statistics will never be more relevant. I will break down those stats tomorrow.

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