I think he's staying. I have several reasons.
1) LeBron's Nature -- I think he's been too careful over his career to make everyone happy, to say the "right" thing in front of media microphone, not to take a political stance, to be open-minded about playing in every NBA city. He has the personality of a "people pleaser." A person like that, in my humble nickle-psychiatric opinion, would shy away from setting up his hometown and region for a national embarrassment on ESPN in prime time.
2) All quiet on the trade front -- If James wanted to leave Cleveland, I think we would hear rumblings about a sign-and-trade. Surely, James would provide that courtesy to the franchise that spent every dollar and every moment to make him happy and comfortable. Such an arrangement would afford James the extra salary and sixth contract year that come with re-signing with your old team. I can picture him leaving, but not so publicly and not without a smidge of courtesy to Dan Gilbert or the fans.
3) Akron -- If there has been one consistent message from James, it has been his desire to win. But that's a cliche. If there is a second consistent message, it's his love for Akron and his desire to take the city to new levels. My blog polls are not scientific, but 61 percent of Akron fans said they would not support a LeBron James who wears a jersey not of the Cavaliers. James, who is indeed intelligent, would recognize that his mission for personally advancing the Rubber City would be awfully difficult if 1) almost 2/3rds of the city's sports fans hate his guts and 2) he's spending half the year in another state.
4) Recruiting Bosh -- On the contrary, James' recent actions have indicated his intent to stay in Cleveland -- even as he does his best to maintain a secret. Earlier this week, he recruited Chris Bosh, hoping to warm the new Miami Heat forward up to a sign-and-trade. If you don't believe in the town, how can you in good conscience pitch it to your good friend?
5) The "edge" persists -- After the season ended, James told Larry King that Cleveland has the edge. Nothing in the past month has changed that. Back then, James knew Miami or Chicago would have cap room for two or three max-salary players. He knew of New York's charm and New Jersey's potential for extracurricular dollars (that may or may not relate to the Russian mob. Just kidding ... but, no, seriously.). The Cavaliers made a great pitch to him last week (see video), and are currently pursuing trades that are certain to make Cleveland one of the favorites to win the East again. If nothing's changed, that "edge" should persist and matriculate into a final decision.
Potentially being the difference between multiple championship runs and multiple lottery appearances, LeBron's decision is on par with a Game 7 of the NBA Finals. I've gotta say, I'm nervous as can be.
To keep up-to-date with tomorrow's rumors and news, I'd recommend following these journalists on Twitter: Chad Ford (of ESPN), Jason Lloyd (ABJ), Brian Windhorst (Plain Dealer), and Chris Broussard (ESPN). Of course, you can also follow LeBron himself.