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Fourth quarter could be low point of recession
By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press
Published on Wednesday, Dec 24, 2008
WASHINGTON: As the longest recession in a quarter century intensifies, analysts believe the small decline in economic activity in the third quarter has worsened significantly in the current fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, declined at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the July-September quarter. Corporate profits fell 1.2 percent.
Some economists believe the economy's decline in the October-December period could be as large as 6 percent. If so, that would be the worst quarterly drop since 1982.
''It will get a lot worse before it gets better,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. ''We are in the midst of the worst recession in the post-war period, even factoring in a massive stimulus program.''
Many economists think this quarter could mark the low point of the recession, which is already the longest in a quarter century, having started in December 2007.
Analysts are projecting that the huge plunge in GDP they expect in the current quarter will be followed by smaller declines in the first and second quarters of next year, before the economy starts growing again next summer. If the recession ends in June 2009, as many economists are forecasting, it would have lasted 18 months, making it the longest recession since World War II.
Meanwhile on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 2.9 percent in November to an annual sales rate of 407,000 units, the slowest pace in nearly 18 years.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes fell by 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million units.
The median sales price of an existing home plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, the biggest year-over-year drop on records dating to 1968. The median, or midpoint, price for a new home sold in November dropped by 12.7 percent to $220,400.
WASHINGTON: As the longest recession in a quarter century intensifies, analysts believe the small decline in economic activity in the third quarter has worsened significantly in the current fourth quarter.
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