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Do IT this week: Layering
Reduced inventories could mean lost deals for holiday shoppers
By Betty Lin-Fisher
Beacon Journal business writer
Published on Thursday, Nov 26, 2009
Here is this year's holiday shopping advice: Do your research, and if you see the item you want at a price you're willing to pay, grab it. Otherwise, you might be out of luck.
That's the mantra as retailers have tightened inventories to match the tightened economy.
And we're not just talking about the special Black Friday deals, but buying throughout the holiday season.
''This is going to be the season where inventories are going to be significantly lower. Stores got burned the last few years,'' said Lisa Lee Freeman, editor in chief of ShopSmart, a magazine from the publishers of Consumer Reports.
''Our advice this year is start earlier and snap stuff up when you see a good deal,'' Freeman said. ''Don't count on prices getting dramatically lower as we get closer.''
Consumer advocates recommend checking retailers' return practices or to see if
there is a price-protection policy where you can get a lower price if one becomes available. Some stores are tightening policies, so returning or getting a better price might not be an easy option.
Last year, retailers had excess inventory because they placed orders for holiday goods as much as 18 months in advance, long before the recession, said Kirthi Kalyanam, a professor specializing in Internet and fashion retailing at Santa Clara University in California. When consumers started clamping their wallets shut, retailers had to ''cut quick and cut deep.''
''That's why you saw very early in the season, like the first week of November, Saks Fifth Avenue launching fairly large reductions of 50 percent,'' he said.
This year, retailers ordered fewer goods, and fewer retailers survived the recession, he said.
''Retailers are in a better position this year than last year to match supply to demand,'' Kalyanam said.
''Consumers should not expect across-the-board, big cuts they got last year. Sure enough, at the end of the season, there will be clearance like other seasons, but the amount to pick through will not be as much.''
A lot of stores also are giving discounts to customers who have signed up for loyalty programs or credit cards.
Kalyanam said he went into a retailer with a 30 percent off coupon that his wife had gotten via e-mail.
''Most items were still regular price, but I still got 30 percent off everything I bought,'' he said. ''I did save, but it was targeted. I don't think other people in the store had that coupon.''
Shoppers who give their e-mail address or sign up for a credit card might benefit from these ''secret sales,'' Freeman said.
ShopSmart does not recommend signing up for a credit card if you plan to apply for a loan soon or have a lot of debt, she said.
Sales decline
The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 1 percent decline in holiday retail sales from a year ago to $437.6 billion. While the number is significantly below the 10-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year's 3.4 percent drop nor as severe as the 3 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009, the industry group said.
Some retailers started their holiday sales before Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season that gets its name from putting stores ''in the black.'' Other stores are opening today and tonight.
This year, Walmart will stay open all night tonight. It also will offer specials at 5 a.m. to try to avoid long lines outside the stores. Toys R Us will open at midnight tonight with Black Friday specials and additional specials beginning at 5 a.m.
Old Navy, Big Lots and CVS will open some stores today.
Retailers still bank on getting consumers into the store with doorbuster Black Friday deals.
''They do have some really good deals, but a lot of times, they're limited-quality deals,'' Freeman said. ''The only people who make out on Black Friday are the maniacs who go out in the middle of the night.''
Stores also count on shoppers still buying something even if they don't get a doorbuster deal.
''You see something that you think is a great deal and you haven't done your research. Stores are counting on that. That's why stores will always count on Black Friday,'' she said.
Going online
In addition to such traditional methods for shopping as newspaper advertising, going online is a smart move, Freeman and Kalyanam said.
''It's much better if you're willing and don't have to go to touch and feel [the product] in the store, you can get a very good shopping experience on the Internet,'' Kalyanam said. ''Last year, people started using coupon sites and searching for prices a lot.''
Mike Allen, president and founder of Shopping-Bargains.com, is counting on the convenience of the Internet to boost his business, which works with more than 1,500 online retailers to publish coupons and deals.
''Every year since 1999, there has been an increase over the previous year,'' Allen said of traffic and sales on his site. His company gets money when a customer uses a link through his site to buy a product from a store.
Allen said he anticipates an increase from last year, which was lower than previous years, but still an increase.
Kalyanam said online holiday shopping accounts for 10 percent of retail sales, but more than 50 percent of shoppers who go into a store have done research online.
Even on Black Friday, there will be special deals online, though they might not be the same as in the bricks-and mortar store and there's not the guarantee that you'll get the Black Friday deal since you're not camped out at a store, Allen acknowledged. There have been online glitches in some years, when an Internet retailer site gets overloaded and shuts down.
Some national stores offer savings on shipping costs by letting customers order goods online and pick them up at a local store.
There are plenty of comparison-shopping Web sites, including pricegrabber.com, shopzilla.com, shopping.com. Allen's site, Shopping-Bargains.com, also has a price-comparison feature.
A number of online retailers are participating in Free Shipping Day, which will be Dec. 17. With Christmas on a Friday this year, delaying purchases closer to the big day might work, but it still could be a risk, Allen said. It's even possible that big procrastinators might be able to pay for overnight shipping on Wednesday, Dec. 23, for delivery on Dec. 24.
But if you can't help it and you are destined to be a late shopper, you'll just have to be flexible in what you can find, Freeman said.
''If there's something you need to buy your child that he wants, I wouldn't wait until the last minute this year,'' she said. ''I would buy it if you can find it at a decent price and set it aside.''
Betty Lin-Fisher can be reached at
330-996-3724 or blinfisher@
thebeaconjournal.com.
Here is this year's holiday shopping advice: Do your research, and if you see the item you want at a price you're willing to pay, grab it. Otherwise, you might be out of luck.
Get the full article here.
Comments
Click here to post your comments
Akron, Ohio
Posted 09:36 AM, 11/26/2009
To the lovely couple in the photos: Go home and spend Thanksgiving where it's warm, with your family, instead of out in the cold, in a tent, in front of Best Buy. Every year these sales get to a new level of ridiculousness. Let's all stop the commercialism of Christmas and focus on the true meaning.
Atlantic City, NJ
Posted 11:45 AM, 11/26/2009
Local NYC news is reporting each store has 5 only of the 197$ laptop but up to 100 already in line to buy one! How do you spell ..stupid?
Tepplin, DC
Posted 12:16 PM, 11/26/2009
Talk about a couple of losers out in front of Best Buy. I mean seriously, people. Do you really have nothing better to do with your lives than to spend 48 hours camped out in front of Best Buy for a cheap laptop that probably won't even last three months?? Better get a really good service agreement on it.
Akron, OH
Posted 12:51 PM, 11/26/2009
These people that camp ouside of the stores in anticipation of these so called 'bargains' really need to get a life!
They are so pathetic.
Seminole, FL
Posted 01:29 PM, 11/26/2009
FbFox et al: Before questioning the camper's motives, look at their tents. 2 days outside a store is nothing to these people. Those tents can last weeks out in the woods....
AND perhaps they don't want to spend thanksgiving with their relatives.....it is after all, a high stress event....
Orrville, Oh
Posted 04:09 PM, 11/26/2009
It’s high time we, the Government of the people, by the people, for the people, of this Representative Republic REFUSE to pay for the more stock dividends (money) Hillarys, Chinese, Foreign and Domestic investors and Stockholders (money marketers) market quarterly in the wholesale and retail price of EVERY product and service Human Beings use for life And Government needs to build, maintain, and operate schools; infrastructure; and provide government services; and national security. That gets only product or service. With money derived from wages or independent business profit, credit cards, welfare checks, food stamps, housing vouchers, and Medicaid!
Posted 05:42 PM, 11/26/2009
Heck! I can't afford a tent let alone a laptop!
Stow, Oh
Posted 05:52 PM, 11/26/2009
Focus on what you have. Don't let advertisers shift your focus to what you do not have.
Da ghetto of Fairlawn, OH
Posted 11:15 PM, 11/26/2009
unbelievable! Laughing my arse off at these fools camping in front of the stores...it is cold & raining outside...can you say losers?
Metairie, LA
Posted 12:37 AM, 11/27/2009
I want some of what Loren is smoking.
Posted 09:36 AM, 11/27/2009
Why do any of you care what those people are doing with their lives/time? How does it affect you? If they want to sit outside in a tent on Thanksgiving, so what!!
Worry about yourself, your family - chances are if you focused your energy on yourself instead of others, you would be a better family member at YOUR house.
clinton, oh
Posted 07:07 PM, 11/27/2009
I wish we all just cared about what the season was
once all about .
The government not only leads people around by their noses but people let materialism do the same thing.
And we wonder how our government and big business has
gotton to be what it is
