By Martin Crutsinger
WASHINGTON: When the weather warms up, so, too, will the U.S. economy.
That, at least, is the prevailing view of economists, who shrugged off a government report Friday that the economy was weaker last quarter than first thought.
Severe winter weather is probably slowing growth again this quarter. But as the chill and snow fade into memory, long-delayed spending by consumers and businesses could invigorate the economy starting in spring.
“Weather is having an impact on a lot of the data,” said Doug Handler, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “We will likely see a boost from pent-up demand in coming weeks.”
In the view of most analysts, the snowstorms and extreme cold have exerted a harmful — but only temporary — effect on the economy. That belief helps explain why Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled this week that the Fed likely will continue reducing its stimulus for the economy throughout 2014.
The Commerce Department said Friday that the economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate last quarter, in part because consumers didn’t spend as much as initially estimated. Initially, Commerce had estimated that the economy expanded at a 3.2 percent rate in the October-December quarter.
One reason the government initially overestimated growth for last quarter was that it didn’t fully take account of how much bad weather would dampen spending on long-lasting goods such as autos.
Last quarter’s increase in the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — was the weakest showing since the first quarter of last year. And it was down sharply from a 4.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter.
Economists had long expected growth to slow in the final quarter of 2013 and the first quarter this year compared with the third quarter of last year. In part, that’s because GDP growth during last year’s third quarter was fueled by an unsustainable buildup in company stockpiles that would need to be worked down.
But analysts said the slowdown has been magnified by a succession of winter storms that have disrupted economic activity — from forcing temporary closings of Macy’s and other department stores to depressing sales at McDonald’s restaurants. Home Depot Inc. said it lost $100 million from bad weather in January.
The damage from consumer spending has been especially acute because it accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity. Economists foresee further spending weakness in the first three months of this year largely because of the weather.
“Due to Mother Nature, quarter one is not going to be anything worth writing home about,” Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. “The rebound ... and all of that pent-up demand won’t show up until the second quarter.”
In particular, analysts think auto purchases that were put off last year will recover as warmer weather draw buyers back to showrooms.