Germany’s Volkswagen will probably become the world’s biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota and General Motors on gains in emerging markets.
The German company’s sales, third among carmakers in 2010, will probably rise 13 percent to 8.1 million vehicles this year, based on the average of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
GM will likely remain second and Toyota, which led the industry for three consecutive years, will probably fall behind the two rivals, according to the survey.
Volkswagen sales in China might rise almost 20 percent this year and more than double in India, according to estimates at researcher J.D. Power & Associates. That’s a contrast to Toyota, which is suspending plants in Southeast Asia because of floods in Thailand, months after an earthquake crippled production in Japan.
“Emerging markets are at a stage of car-adoption by consumers and there is still a large space for sales to grow,” said Jenny Gu, Shanghai-based senior markets analyst for J.D. Power. “VW realized this and put a lot of effort on emerging markets.”
Estimates at J.D. Power, IHS Inc. and PwC Autofacts were used to calculate the average projections.
Volkswagen shares have fallen about 3.3 percent in 2011, weighed by concerns about the European debt crisis. Still, that’s a smaller decline than the 34 percent drop at Detroit-based GM and 20 percent at Japan-based Toyota.
Toyota could regain the lead from VW next year as the recovery of its facilities from the March earthquake will allow the anticipated sale of 8.4 million cars, or half a million units more than VW, according to IHS. J.D. Power projects VW will retain its lead in 2012, outselling Toyota by about 50,000 units.
VW, which also owns the Audi and Skoda brands, focused on boosting capacity and its network of dealerships as it built its brand in markets such as China and India, Gu said.
Automakers are turning to developing economies for growth as sales in mature markets slow. China, the world’s second-largest economy, will grow 9.5 percent this year, six times the pace of the U.S. and euro area, according to International Monetary Fund estimates last month. The country is already the biggest auto market globally, with sales exceeding 18 million in 2010.
VW sales in China will probably reach 2.3 million units and 116,000 in India this year, with the two markets accounting for about a third of the company’s sales, according to J.D. Power estimates.
VW, which operates more than 60 factories worldwide, plans to spend a record $87 billion — excluding its ventures in China — over the next five years to raise annual production to 10 million vehicles by 2018.
The company has forecast its global sales will increase 5 percent this year after posting a record 7.2 million deliveries in 2010. The German carmaker’s Audi luxury unit overtook Daimler AG’s Mercedes Benz as the world’s second-largest maker of high-end vehicles earlier this year, trailing only BMW AG.
VW, the first overseas carmaker to enter China three decades ago, is planning to add two plants and double production to 3 million cars annually.
Still, VW faces hurdles with its partnership with Japanese carmaker Suzuki, whose venture in India is the top seller in the market. The German carmaker is also facing delays in a planned merger with Porsche SE.
Suzuki is seeking to end an alliance with its German partner after accusing it of not sharing technology. VW has said it plans to keep its stake.
Ending the partnership with Suzuki would undermine the German automaker’s credit assessment, Moody’s Investors Service said.
