As part of the trend of states shifting their primaries to earlier dates in presidential election years to gain clout, the Ohio legislature voted in 1999 to move the state’s presidential primary from May to March.
It was a fizzle. In 2000, John McCain sparked attention in the final weeks of the Republican primary, but failed to stop George W. Bush. Four years later, Democratic U.S. Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards criss-crossed the state, Edwards fading in his effort to capitalize on economic issues.
In 2008, things did get interesting, for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton won the Ohio primary against Barack Obama, keeping her bid alive. The nomination wasn’t resolved for Obama until every state had voted.
This year, even with a crowded field of Republican challengers to President Obama’s re-election, it seemed Ohio’s presidential primary might, once again, fade into obscurity. When Ohio Republicans, in an unsuccessful effort to create time for compromise on a bill to redraw Ohio’s congressional districts, postponed primaries for U.S. House races and presidential candidates until June, the Buckeye State was left to content itself with its traditional role as a battleground state in the general election.
Newt Gingrich may have changed that, his sudden surge in the polls to front-runner status creating the possibility that a drawn-out contest with Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination will not be settled until Ohio, California and New Jersey have their say in June.
Even if Gingrich blew yesterday’s filing deadline for the March 6 primary, he will probably get the chance to file again.
Jon Husted, the Ohio secretary of state. had advised all candidates to file by yesterday’s deadline because the bill shifting some primaries to June won’t go into effect until next month.
When it does, U.S. House candidates and presidential campaigns will have to refile, the delay giving Gingrich additional time to build a campaign organization large enough to handle the details of gathering petition signatures.
Also working in Gingrich’s favor over the long haul are new rules by the Republican National Committee for delegate selection. Unlike Democrats, Republicans had operated under a winner-take-all system. Those rules worked to shut down the party’s nomination process early.
But this year, most GOP delegates will be elected proportionately up until April 1, meaning that second-place finishes for Gingrich in some of the contests leading up to Ohio would help keep him in the race. On the downside, postponing the Ohio primary to June means the state would go back to the old winner-take-all system.
Gingrich might also be able to take advantage of disarray among Ohio Republicans, their united front beginning to crumble as a battle for control of the Ohio Republican Party rages between the forces of Gov. John Kasich, a former U.S. House member who was allied with Gingrich when he was speaker, and Kevin DeWine, the state party chairman.
DeWine has history on his side, two previous attempts by sitting governors to oust party chairmen (Ray Bliss in 1956 and Bob Bennett in 1995) ending in failure.
But trouble is brewing with key elements of the party’s present-day base, according to a memo to Ohio House Republicans from Speaker Bill Batchelder.
Some of DeWine’s sins, at least in Batchelder’s eyes, involved comments about the influence of social conservatives and tea party members on the party. The Ohio Republican Party has traditionally been business-oriented and pragmatic; in other words, disposed to candidates like Romney.
One DeWine comment was that “social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage have driven the GOP agenda, causing it to lose voters looking for pragmatic solutions to everyday problems.” At another point, DeWine insulted tea party members with an email that said they are “people who find the truth just too inconvenient for their agenda.”
Part of Gingrich’s surge in the polls is coming from the tea party movement and the kind of grass-roots activists motivated by social issues. While DeWine has a point from the perspective of winning a general election, the first order of business for the Republican candidates is to win primaries, and that means motivating the activists most likely to turn out in June.
Gingrich, to be sure, faces daunting obstacles in raising money and building organizations, both of which have been strong suits for Romney. The former House speaker also has a history of self-implosion. But if he gets to Ohio, he will surely make things very interesting
Hoffman is a Beacon Journal editorial writer. He can be reached at 330-996-3740 or emailed at slhoffman@thebeaconjournal.com.
