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But Clinton and Obama are missing opportunities
Published on Thursday, Mar 20, 2008
Ohio provides a very reliable path to the White House, which makes trends here worth watching. The track record is this: The winning candidate for president has carried the state 25 out of the last 27 presidential elections.
(If you must know, Republican Richard Nixon won in 1960 but lost to Democrat John F. Kennedy. Before that, in 1944, Republican Thomas E. Dewey won Ohio but got trounced by Franklin D. Roosevelt as the Democrat won a fourth term.)
Given the history, and the results of the latest statewide poll by the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron, Democrats must be seen as well-positioned to win the presidency this year. With Ohioans increasingly concerned about the economy, Democrats have an opening to win the state, and, by doing so, win the presidency. All they have to do is drive through.
The Bliss Institute poll shows the economy as the No. 1 issue for Ohio adults, far outdistancing foreign policy issues such as the war in Iraq and terrorism. Almost half (48 percent) of the 1,507 Ohio adults surveyed between Jan. 10 and March 8 named economic issues as their top concern. Foreign policy issues such as the war in Iraq and terrorism came in a distant second, at 25 percent.
Could this get any better? Yes, it could. First, the trend (as it was for Bill Clinton in the run-up to the 1992 presidential election) is toward increasing concern among Ohioans about the state of the economy. Previous statewide polling by the Bliss Institute reveals these percentages for Ohioans who think the state's economy is on the ''wrong track'': 64 percent in 2005, 67 percent in 2007 and 74 percent in the current poll.
John Green, director of the Bliss Institute, noted in his report that exit polling in 2004 showed Ohio voters evenly split: About one-third named the war in Iraq as their top concern, with approximately equal percentages naming the economy and social issues. (In the latest Bliss survey, only about 11 percent named social issues as their top concern.)
The stunning shift in priorities in just a few years represents a sharp turning away from the issues George W. Bush used to win Ohio in 2004, a win that locked up his re-election victory.
Could this get any better for the Democrats? Yes, it could. Asked which party is better equipped to deal with economic issues, Democrats enjoyed a huge advantage in the Bliss poll, 65 percent to 31 percent for Republicans. Among independents, the key to winning Ohio, Democrats did very well, 60 percent of adults choosing the Democratic Party as better equipped on the economy, with 35 percent choosing Republicans.
On handling foreign policy and handling social issues, results were evenly split between the two parties. But on handling domestic policy issues such as public services and taxes, Democrats had another big advantage, 59 percent to 38 percent, over Republicans. Again, independents showed strong support for Democrats on dealing with domestic issues, with 52 percent choosing the party as better equipped, an eight-point lead over Republicans.
In late 1991 and into 1992, a series of statewide polls done for the Beacon Journal and its broadcast partners showed a similar pattern. In three surveys, starting in the fall of 1991, Ohio voters voiced major concerns about the economy. In 1991, 45 percent named the economy and jobs as their No. 1 concerns. That percentage did drop to 39 percent in the spring of 1992 because of the Los Angeles riots. But by September, almost 60 percent named the economy as their top concern.
Bill Clinton and his advisers tightly wrapped their campaign around voters' growing anxiety about paying the bills, thus winning Ohio and the presidency. Squandering such a wide-open opportunity for victory in Ohio this year would be difficult, but, for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, not impossible.
First, their hand-wringing over the North American Free Trade Agreement has been shallow and misleading, pandering to industrial trade unions while ignoring the benefits of imported goods to U.S. consumers and the Ohio companies successfully exporting.
What put Hillary Clinton over the top in the March 4 primary wasn't her stand on free trade, it was her clever television ad about answering the phone at 3 a.m. While the ad could be construed as a general attack on Obama's experience, it also raised the issue of who is better suited to handling national security matters.
Trouble is, in the fall election, that's one of the areas where Ohioans see the two parties on pretty even terms. Republican John McCain could start cutting his own ads about 3 a.m. calls, a move he and his supporters no doubt are already relishing.
Obama's candidacy, meanwhile, has been driven into the difficult territory of race, religion and politics. One of the underlying ironies is that a strong message on economic development for all would help Obama where he needs it most, in swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. In those states, a sense of economic competition between whites and blacks helps create the polarization Obama must avoid.
Then there is the Democratic nominating process itself. As good as the poll numbers look in Ohio, the Democrats are now more focused on numbers of pledged delegates and how much it might cost to run do-over primaries.
The longer this drags on, the more time McCain will have to figure out how to unify his party, raise money — and develop his own message.
Hoffman is a Beacon Journal editorial writer. He can be reached at 330-996-3740, or e-mailed at slhoffman@thebeaconjournal.com.
Ohio provides a very reliable path to the White House, which makes trends here worth watching. The track record is this: The winning candidate for president has carried the state 25 out of the last 27 presidential elections.
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