At this point in the process of nominating a Republican candidate to take on President Barack Obama in the fall, conventional political wisdom would indicate that party loyalists would begin thinking seriously about linking arms with the leading candidate (that would be Mitt Romney) and marching forward to victory.
The underlying assumption is that even the most hotly contested of primary battles can be forgotten once the general election campaign begins.
Romney sure looks like a front-runner. His victory in Iowa was secured by a mere eight votes over Rick Santorum, but there are few indications Romney’s challengers can, as they say, “go the distance” to make the rest of the primary season very interesting.
(For their part, Ohio Republicans hope for some action in the state’s March 6 primary, although history indicates the contest will be pretty much over by then.)
To stay in the race, Romney’s challengers need lots of money and the ability to organize quickly as the primary season grinds on. Santorum doesn’t have much of either, and Ron Paul’s views make him unelectable, something polling in Iowa made clear even though Paul finished third in the vote totals. In other words, many Iowans who voted for Paul also told pollsters they consider Romney the most electable candidate, by a wide margin.
So, the question becomes whether the earlier part of the primary season, with its string of debates and “leader of the month club,” can be forgotten, too, as the well-funded Romney machine marches toward primaries in New Hampshire (Tuesday), South Carolina (Jan. 21) and Florida (Jan. 31).
I don’t think so.
Even if Romney quickly moves to sew up the GOP nomination, the party’s flirtations with a string of possible alternatives will make it difficult for him to hold the party together in the long run.
That Santorum and Paul got as far as they did in Iowa does not bode well for Romney’s ability to unify the party. Neither do surges for Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Santorum.
Paul, polling in Iowa showed, was drawing young, college-educated volunteers, an enthusiastic group the party could use in its tent as it prepares to take on Obama.
But whether those cohorts will fall in behind Romney is open to a lot of questions. So, too, are there questions about other blocs, such as the “family values” crowd Santorum courted so heavily in Iowa.
Which leads to another wrinkle for Romney as his campaign moves forward. It involves a question that resonates deeply in Ohio, traditionally a battleground state and accurate indicator of national outcomes.
The question is this: What kind of Republican base, exactly, will Romney be unifying?
In Ohio, a state that leans slightly Republican in its voting trends, the modern Ohio Republican Party is a great place to start looking for answers. It has been, even taking into account the arrival of John Kasich, a party of pragmatism, supported by big business and uncomfortable with extreme ideologues.
It is the party of former Govs. George Voinovich and Bob Taft, and of former Ohio House Speaker Jo Ann Davidson and former Senate President Stanley Aronoff.
Conventional wisdom would indicate that this is the party that will coalesce once again around a can-do, businesslike candidate like Romney, who is speaking fairly consistently (considering past flip-flops) about turning the economy around.
The trouble is, the tea party and other groups with conservative agendas have more than just their noses under the GOP’s “big tent.” They are wriggling their way all the way in, their influence exerting a relentless pull toward the right.
When that happens, pragmatism begins to fall apart, making party unification difficult and presenting obstacles to attracting the moderate, independent voters who decide elections in Ohio.
Conventional wisdom would indicate that Romney’s jobs message will click with Ohio Republicans, and with independents and moderates, giving him an advantage in a head-to-head contest with President Obama.
But a fractured party, riven by such a confusing, chaotic (and much-televised) run-up to the primaries themselves, will be more difficult to organize than it has been in past presidential elections.
To be sure, Obama will have his problems, the slow pace of the economic recovery a source of frustration for middle-class families.
But in recent weeks, Obama has seized the opportunity to play off obstinate House Republicans, their priorities under the spell of members allied with the tea party.
If the economy holds steady and Obama can project steady leadership against an ideologically driven Republican Party, Ohio could once again be a very interesting state to watch in November.
Hoffman is a Beacon Journal editorial writer. He can be reached at 330-996-3740 or emailed at slhoffman@thebeacon journal.com.
