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The numbers in the Obama health plan don't add up
Published on Monday, Aug 04, 2008
The figures continue to trend upward, a guarantee that any promise to lower costs, let alone save enough to pay for coverage for the uninsured, will garner wide interest.
Barack Obama has presented a plan he contends would trim at least $200 billion a year in health-care expenses without jeopardizing the quality of care, lowering costs by as much as $2,500 per family of four. Further, the Democratic candidate for president promises to cover the uninsured. And if those aren't impressive enough goals, Obama insists his plan would achieve the targets within his first term.
How will he accomplish such a feat? Obama anticipates generating huge annual savings, primarily from promoting the use of electronic medical records ($77 billion), controlling administrative costs ($46 billion) and emphasizing preventive care and the management of chronic diseases ($81 billion). The savings, plus the revenues from a repeal of the Bush tax cut on those earning above $250,000 a year, would pay for new programs and subsidies to extend coverave to the uninsured.
The focus certainly is not misplaced. Studies by the Institute of Medicine, for instance, estimate that medical and prescription errors cause more than 100,000 preventable deaths a year, an error rate readily reduced by computerized records. Other studies indicate that preventing the onset of chronic diseases and changing the way they are managed significantly reduce the medical and social costs.
For all that, the plan invites full-blown skepticism. The time frame for such a remarkable turnaround is overly optimistic. It ignores the clash of political interests that have impeded an overhaul for more than a decade. More important still, there is little solid evidence the proposed changes will yield the size of estimated savings. Preventive care, for example, is desirable, but it does not necessarily reduce costs. Besides, if the tax-cut revenues go into subsidies to cover the uninsured, what would finance the middle-class tax cuts Obama has promised?
Slippery numbers only hurt the plan's credibility.
Get the full article here.
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