By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar
WASHINGTON: It may just be the start of a new trend. The uninsured rate dropped modestly this month as expanded coverage rolled out under President Barack Obama’s health-care law, a major survey released Thursday has found.
The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index found that the uninsured rate for U.S. adults dropped by 1.2 percentage points in January, to 16.1 percent. That would translate to roughly 2 million to 3 million people gaining coverage.
The closely watched poll combines the scope and depth found in government surveys with the timeliness of media sampling. Pollsters interview 500 people a day, 350 days a year. The survey can be an early indicator of broad shifts in society. The health-care results were based on more than 9,000 interviews, about nine times as many as in a standard national poll.
“The uninsured rate had been expected to come down as the Affordable Care Act was implemented,” said Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief. “That would be the most reasonable hypothesis.”
The biggest change was for unemployed people, a drop of 6.7 percentage points. That was followed by a 2.6 percentage-point decline for nonwhites. Traditionally, both groups are far more likely to be uninsured than the population as a whole.
The survey found no appreciable change among young adults ages 18-34. Members of that coveted, low-cost demographic have been ambivalent about signing up so far.
Women saw a decline of 1.9 percentage points, about three times greater than the 0.6 percentage-point drop for men. Uninsured rates also fell all along the income ladder, with those making $36,000-$89,999 seeing the greatest drop, 1.8 percentage points.
Major elements of the health-care law took effect with the new year. Virtually all Americans are now required to get covered or risk fines. Insurers can no longer turn away people with health problems. New state-based markets are offering taxpayer-subsidized insurance to middle-class households.
Medicaid sign-ups are also rising. That’s partly because of a program expansion accepted by half the states and partly as a consequence of previously eligible but unenrolled people now forced to comply with the law’s individual coverage mandate.
The White House called the poll good news. “It shows that the law is working,” senior adviser David Simas said.
Nonetheless, Newport said it could take three months to discern a full trend. Other factors could also be behind the shift, including an improving economy.
“It’s a drop, but not extraordinary,” Newport said. “The glass is half full for proponents of the Affordable Care Act because things are moving in the right direction.
The office of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., pointed out that the adult uninsured rate is about the same now as when Obama took office in 2009.