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Do IT this week: Layering
Both parties see race as predictor of results in presidential contest
By Stephanie Warsmith Beacon Journal staff writer
Published on Monday, Oct 15, 2007
The Canton mayoral race once again will be used as a test site for the upcoming presidential election.
Like in 2003, the Republican Party plans to try new campaign tactics in Mayor Janet Weir Creighton's bid to hold onto her seat.
''It's an important race,'' said Kevin DeWine, deputy director of the Ohio Republican Party. ''This is the largest (Ohio) city with a Republican mayor. Plus, it gives us a great chance, in a real world live environment, to try out tools.''
The Canton mayor's race garnered the same interest four years ago, when Creighton was elected by 371 votes and was rewarded with a phone call from President George Bush's former adviser and political mastermind, Karl Rove.
''Congratulations,'' he told her, according to a book about Rove published last year. ''A great victory. We needed you to win.''
The Ohio Democratic Party, which has a real contender in state Rep. William Healy II, also plans to make a significant investment of resources and an undisclosed amount of money in the Nov. 6 mayor's race.
''It's one of the top targets we have in the state,'' said state par ty spokesman Randy Borntrager, who was in Canton last week to work on Healy's campaign.
The battle in Canton is being fought in a county that is closely watched by national pollsters and researchers as a predictor of the outcome of presidential races. And in this case, the sitting mayor has played a prominent role in recent presidential campaigns.
Both candidates and their parties are confident.
''This is the No. 1 race,'' said Creighton, who has served in political offices in Stark County for 22 years. ''The Democrats want to say, 'We picked off the last Republican mayor.' I am up to the fight.''
Call from White House
Creighton fondly remembers that phone call from Rove that was mentioned in the 2006 book The Architect: Karl Rove and the Master Plan for Absolute Power.
''You get excited when you get a call and it's the White House,'' said Creighton, who noted that Rove is a big fan of late President William McKinley, a former Canton resident.
According to the Rove book, Canton was one of several cities nationwide used by the Republican Party in November 2003 for a dry run of a 72-hour blitz strategy to get out the vote. This included a barrage of phone calls, leaflets and rides to the polls.
Stephen Brooks, associate director of the University of Akron's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, said the testing tactic is a common practice.
''It's a way to see how the public in competitive areas is feeling,'' said Brooks, who learned after-the-fact about Canton being a testing ground in 2003. ''It's a way to see which messages seem to be sticking and which aren't of interest to the public.''
Brooks isn't surprised at the interest in the latest Canton contest. He said both candidates are well known ''election-tested'' figures.
''That makes for a competitive race and an interesting race to watch,'' he said.
Both the candidates and the parties are leery of discussing exactly how much they hope to raise. (The first campaign finance filing deadline is Oct. 25.)
Creighton said she spent $160,000 in 2003 and hopes to surpass that amount in defending her $91,884-a-year job. Healy would like to raise as much, but is doubtful.
''I would love to think I can,'' said Healy, who would have run against Creighton in 2003, if he hadn't lost the Democratic primary by 139 votes. ''But, I expect the mayor to have more money, as she did four years ago.''
Two tales, one city
During their campaigns, Creighton and Healy have painted very different portraits of Canton.
Healy describes a city plagued by crime, job losses and boarded-up houses.
''We have thousands and thousands of people who are suffering,'' he said. ''They have lost their homes. They can't find work. People are afraid because crime has happened to them. They know where drug dealers are. That is commonplace.''
Creighton touts Canton as a place in need of improvement, but one that's on the mend. She gets defensive at Healy's swipes.
''To me, all he wants to spew is doom and gloom,'' she said. ''I think it's an insult to the people who have worked hard to improve the city. This isn't a one-person game.''
Some of Canton's statistics are pretty bleak. The city's inflation-adjusted median household income dropped by more than 25 percent between 1979 and 2006 double the decrease for the county as a whole. Akron suffered a 17.1 percent decline.
Canton's population also has fallen dramatically by 28.3 percent since 1970. Akron's decline is slightly less at 23.9 percent.
The numbers Healy considers most important, however, are the latest FBI crime figures, which show violent crimes in Canton rising 21.7 percent between 2005 and 2006 the highest among Ohio's 10 largest cities.
In an interesting twist, the Democrat is pledging to be tougher on crime. Healy says he would put police substations in each middle school, adopt stricter hiring guidelines for police, and hire more officers.
''We need to crack down and fast,'' he said. ''We need a safe environment where people know, if they do something wrong, they will get arrested.''
However, when the FBI figures for violent crimes are adjusted for population, Canton is ranked sixth for violence in 2006. (Akron was eighth.)
Creighton points out that violent crimes dropped during her tenure by 31 percent. She points to steps she has taken to address crime, including the regular walks she does in ''hot spots'' with police and employees from the health, building code and street departments.
''I've found you've got to take it directly to the neighborhood,'' Creighton said.
Targeted techniques
As the candidates talk directly to Canton voters about issues they think are important, their political machinery is drawing on sophisticated resources.
''As we learned last year in the 2006 elections, we need to focus on micro-targeted techniques,'' said Borntrager, the Ohio Democratic Party's spokesman. ''We will talk to voters about issues they care about. We'll have the resources here necessary for him (Healy) to win this race.''
Canton a Democratic-leaning city has had a Republican mayor since 1991. Ending that reign would be a big coup going into the presidential election.
''We want to do our best to make sure cities are in Democratic hands, so when our presidential nominee comes, they have a friendly face to welcome them,'' Borntrager said.
The Republicans are just as determined to keep Creighton in the mayor's office.
''As a party, we're interested in doing everything we can to see that she's re-elected,'' DeWine said.
DeWine said the party will try ''grass-roots voter contact tools and tactics'' in Canton that may be used in the presidential election. He said Canton is large enough to be a ''worthwhile, significant'' testing ground.
If Creighton is re-elected, DeWine expects her to play a significant role in the presidential campaign, as she has in the past. She helped Bush's 2004 Northeast Ohio campaign and was a delegate to the last two Republican National Conventions.
Creighton, who considers politics to be her ''extracurricular activity,'' relishes the opportunity to be involved in 2008.
Healy said he would support the Democratic presidential candidate ''as long as I was taking care of the city of Canton first.''
Brooks from the Bliss Institute predicts the Canton mayoral race will be close.
One thing's for sure: Many will be watching.
As for Rove, Creighton denies Healy's claims that he's visited Canton recently, though she said she has seen him several times since her 2003 victory. So far, with this campaign, she said she's had no contact with anyone at the national level.
But, on Nov. 7, she'd love to have another phone call.
Stephanie Warsmith can be reached at 330-996-3705 or swarsmith@thebeaconjournal.com.
The Canton mayoral race once again will be used as a test site for the upcoming presidential election.
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