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Do IT this week: Layering
Results don't bode well for Obama and party
By Liz Sidoti
Associated Press
Published on Thursday, Nov 05, 2009
WASHINGTON: What we learned from the off-year elections: The president's influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, ''It's the economy, stupid.''
Also: Republicans can win — even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn't the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.
The first Election Day of Barack Obama's presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey. Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that had been long held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.
So, what did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races on Tuesday? And how will those lessons shape the
maneuvering of Republicans and Democrats ahead of 2010 midterms, when Obama's prestige will be put to the test across the country?
The results don't seem to bode well for Obama and his party heading into a high-stakes year as they look to advance an expensive domestic agenda while protecting the Democrats' grip on House, Senate and gubernatorial seats nationwide. They'll try to win over people in a country clouded by a job-killing recession, divided over war and, as Tuesday's results showed, fed up with the powers that be — no matter the political party.
Obama's limited power
''Yes, we can!'' has turned into ''Yes, we can — if we feel like it!''
The broad coalition — minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents — that fueled Obama's victory was a 2008 phenomenon; it can't be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot. Even though Obama personally implored his supporters to turn out in droves, voters rejected incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democratic candidate R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.
That could be a problem for Democratic lawmakers in swing states and conservative-to-moderate districts next fall, because Obama won't be on the ballot to drive up turnout. Candidates carried into office in the Obama wave will be vulnerable in 2010 — with no lifeguard to help. And that could influence how those lawmakers vote in Congress in the meantime — perhaps threatening the president's priorities.
With Obama unable to guarantee their political survival, what's the incentive for them to back his legislative agenda?
Independents hold keys
Voters who don't claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.
Independents are, well, truly independent — and, thus, are extraordinarily fickle.
Last year, hope and change tilted them toward Democrats. This year, anger and frustration tilted them to Republicans. They broke 2-1 for GOP victors Chris Christie in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell in Virginia.
Issues, from jobs to taxes to government spending, drive this center of the electorate, so candidates who talk about what independents care most about will win the middle and, thus, elections.
Democrats must figure out a way to bring independents back into their fold — or risk huge losses next fall.
Still, Republicans must be mindful of the volatile nature of public attitudes, for independents who have moved toward the GOP since last fall could just as easily move back to the Democrats by next November.
Bush-bashing falls flat
The warm and fuzzy feelings voters had for Democrats in back-to-back national elections are history.
George W. Bush as a political punching bag doesn't work anymore; Democrats tried to use him against Christie and failed.
And now, after riding a wave of change to power, Democrats are the incumbents facing an electorate rich with anti-incumbent sentiment.
Of course, individual candidates matter, too, and in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats ran candidates whom voters just didn't seem to like much.
Victories in both states have given Republicans a much-needed morale boost. And the wins proved that Republicans can find success if their candidates gravitate toward the middle and are responsive to the voters' mood. That approach allowed the GOP to successfully woo independents.
WASHINGTON: What we learned from the off-year elections: The president's influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, ''It's the economy, stupid.''
Get the full article here.
Comments
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Akron, OH
Posted 09:06 AM, 11/05/2009
I disagree that Democrats should be "cautious". I think the message is: Git er Done--NOW!
everywhere, oh
Posted 05:00 PM, 11/05/2009
Despite being outspent by a margin of 3-to-1, and despite President Obama bringing his star power to bear by campaigning for his opponent, Republican challenger Chris Christie defeated the Democratic incumbent governor of New Jersey, the billionaire Jon Corzine.
The economy stinks, Obama is running the deficit through the roof, Americans are against ObamaCare, Americans don't want a bunch of new taxes during a recession, Americans don't want their electricity bills to go up, Americans are alarmed at all the government expansion and overreach, joblessness is around 17%, etc, etc.
It's the economy stupid.
