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Democrat closes gap, candidates in dead heat as economic fears grow
By David Knox
Beacon Journal staff writer
Published on Sunday, Oct 12, 2008
What a difference a couple of weeks make.
Boosted by growing concern about the Wall Street meltdown and Main Street credit freeze, Sen. Barack Obama is closing the gap for Ohio's 20 electoral votes in next month's presidential election, according to the latest Ohio Newspaper Poll.
The Illinois Democrat now trails Republican Sen. John McCain by 2 percentage points — well within the poll's margin of error of 3.3 percent.
''It's a statistical dead heat,'' said Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which surveyed 876 likely voters across the state Oct. 4-8.
The poll was the second of three telephone surveys commissioned by the Ohio News Organization, a consortium of the state's eight largest newspapers.
The first poll, conducted Sept. 12-16, showed McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent of the respondents saying they'd vote for independent Ralph Nader or Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided.
The new poll found McCain's lead down to 48-46.
''We've gone from a race that looked increasingly like it was going toward John McCain to a race that now is more or less even,'' said Rademacher, whose institute also conducts the Ohio Poll.
'Still up for grabs'
Rademacher said the election was ''still up for grabs'' because 13 percent said they might change their minds and 3 percent were undecided. Several said they made up their minds only recently.
''I had been leaning toward Obama,'' said Kim McMahon, 50, of Wauseon, a rural community about 36 miles west of Toledo. What ''cemented the deal,'' she said, was the crumbling stock market.
''That's where I have my 401(k) and IRAs,'' said McMahon, a divorced mother with three children in college who works three jobs — as a bank teller, at Wal-Mart and part-time catering. ''Sure, I'm scared. Realistically, I figure I probably won't be able to retire.''
Many poll respondents voiced similar fears. Two-thirds said they were ''very worried'' or ''somewhat worried'' about having a ''secure retirement.''
Last week's headlines did nothing to calm those jitters. The head of the Congressional Budget Office reported on Tuesday that public and private pension funds and employees' 401(k) and other retirement accounts had lost a fifth of their value — as much as $2 trillion — in the past 15 months.
The poll found a majority of voters oppose allowing workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in the stock market.
For many respondents, financial anxiety has gone beyond Wall Street. More than a fifth said they were worried about losing their jobs. A slightly smaller percentage were worried about losing their homes.
Nearly half thought their parents' generation was better off economically and 54 percent thought the next generation would be worse off.
Doing the job
McMahon cited Obama's background, as a multiracial child raised by a single mother and grandparents, as the reason she considered him the best choice for tough times.
''I think it's his upbringing,'' she said. ''He, at least, can relate to people.''
By a small margin, more respondents agreed with her judgment: When asked which candidate ''would do the best job in improving economic conditions,'' Obama was favored, 47 percent to 44 percent.
Christine Skelnik, 41, of Mansfield, also made up her mind recently, and again the economy was a factor. But Obama wasn't her choice.
''I think that Obama is fundamentally a socialist-principled person,'' she said. ''I believe in less government intervention and that people learn lessons individually and so are greater governors of themselves and their money.''
But while praising McCain as an ideal wartime president, she questioned his conservative economic credentials. ''I was undecided, leaning toward McCain,'' said Skelnik, mother of two young children whose husband is a database analyst.
Choice of running mate
McCain's choice of a running mate removed those doubts, she said. ''I believe Sarah Palin has a good economic track record.''
John Eurich, a 23-year-old construction laborer from Ashtabula, said Palin also made up his mind — to vote for Obama.
''I was undecided for a long time, but the more I learned about Sarah Palin, the more I thought if something would happen to McCain, she would be the next one in line.
''She doesn't seem to have much experience and she kind of babbles on about nonsense in her interviews.''
Gary Berning, 35, of Cincinnati, a corporate tax manager for Kroger, also objected to Palin.
''Normally that would not be much of an issue,'' he said. ''But because of his age — what, he's 72 — you'd think he would have gotten somebody more competent because he may not be around four years from now.''
He jeered Palin's performance in the vice presidential debate. ''I just loved the way she just didn't bother to answer some questions that I didn't think she was capable of answering.''
A lifelong Republican, Berning said he favored McCain in the 2000 primary battle for president ''because he was a moderate — not a hard-liner on abortion'' and was disappointed ''he pandered to the conservative base'' by picking Palin.
Andrew Culp, 40, of Sebring, east of Alliance, doesn't think Palin's reputation as a hard-core conservative — especially on economic issues — is warranted.
''I think that's media hype,'' he said. ''When you listen to her talk, she's not talking like a true ultraconservative — just deregulation and no regulation.''
Culp, an Army veteran of the first Gulf War who works for Lowe's in Massillon, said he was impressed with the way Palin ''stood up'' to big oil companies.
As for specific proposals for improving the economy, the poll found opinions split.
Asked to choose the ''most effective action government could take to stimulate the U.S. economy,'' about a third of the respondents favored cutting taxes on lower- and middle-income families — a plank stressed in Obama's platform.
But the second most popular choice, favored by 17 percent of respondents, was taken from the McCain campaign playbook: tax cuts for U.S. businesses.
The remaining respondents were divided among pulling most troops out of Iraq, raising taxes on upper-income families and increasing spending on domestic programs.
More than half said free trade agreements, such as NAFTA, have been bad for Ohio.
Ed Long, 37, of Shaker Heights, said he saw no difference between John McCain's economic proposals and those of President Bush.
''Whereas Barack Obama really has a step-by step plan — you can go to his Web site or hear what he's saying of what he'd like to do,'' he said.
Long, a pharmaceutical sales agent, married with three children, said the mortgage crisis has hit his community hard. ''When I drive around this neighborhood and I see the number of for-sale or auction signs, that's a real concern.''
Long said the success of Obama's primary campaign demonstrated he had the organizational and leadership skills to be president. ''That said to me this person has an idea of how to get things done.''
Cynthia Spring, 66, of Newark, said she was voting for Obama because the country was more likely to prosper with a Democratic administration.
''Look at the shape the country was in economy-wise at the end of President Clinton's term and how it is now,'' she said.
Spring, a retired beautician, said health care was the next most important issue.
''My husband got laid off, but he was eligible for Medicare by then,'' she said. ''I was two years younger. I didn't have insurance for a year.''
Melody Shields, 48, of Columbus, said national security was most important because everything else depends on having ''a secure nation.''
Shields, who works at Ohio State University coordinating surgical procedures, said McCain's military background makes him the better candidate.
''We don't want to go back to a 9/11 scenario,'' she said.
David Knox can be reached at 330-996-3532 or dknox@thebeaconjournal.com
Staff writer Katie Byard contributed to this report.
What a difference a couple of weeks make.
Get the full article here.
Comments
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Tallmadge, OH
Posted 07:55 AM, 10/12/2008
The Newspaper poll is wrong. Obama is up by 3 points or more in all the other polls. I suspect the problem is phone polls in the day of cell phones are no longer right. 20% of the people only have a cell phone these days.
Barberton, OH
Posted 08:13 AM, 10/12/2008
This is the same poll I took. They called my home about a week and a half ago and then another one called a couple days later with similar questions. I was more than happy to participate in both.
Akron, OH
Posted 08:44 AM, 10/12/2008
OlderThenDirt - what would make this poll wrong? Why are the polls that you seem to want to believe correct and this one wrong? Could it be because it does not agree with your opinion?
Dalton Ave, Henderson, NV
Posted 09:35 AM, 10/12/2008
@Sam, because if the newspaper poll did not have a truly random sample, as OlderThanDirt implies, then there is little statistical value to it.
Posted 09:48 AM, 10/12/2008
I am not a big fan of Obama but the bottom line is Republican corporate greed has been screwing the American people since Ronald Reagan. We finally see the wonderful results of Reaganomics and the Contract with America. This party has accomplished more to damage the american economy than Bin Laden ever hoped for. If Bin Laden is alive I am sure he has a big smile on his face.
Akron, OH
Posted 09:55 AM, 10/12/2008
New York Times - September 11, 2003
New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
By STEPHEN LABATON
The Bush administration today recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago.
Under the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry.
The new agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would exercise authority over any new lines of business. And it would determine whether the two are adequately managing the risks of their ballooning portfolios.
The plan is an acknowledgment by the administration that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which together have issued more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt -- is broken. A report by outside investigators in July concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors, and critics have said Fannie Mae does not adequately hedge against rising interest rates . .
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E3D6123BF932A2575AC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=print
Akron, OH
Posted 09:59 AM, 10/12/2008
''These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''
Representative Melvin L. Watt, Democrat of North Carolina, agreed."
Posted 11:27 AM, 10/12/2008
Polls? LOL!!! Ever hear of Tom Bradley effect?
Akron, OH
Posted 01:24 PM, 10/12/2008
Ed - weak argument. Arguments can be made for and against every poll.
Akron, OH
Posted 01:33 PM, 10/12/2008
Bob - top blame this on Reagan is just ignorance. We are suffering from the paper economy that Clinton created to get elected. He left a mess to clean-up. Bush and some of his republican buddies should have started correcting the problem the day he took office, but he felt it was better to lead like a democrat when it came to the economy. It is so sad to see republicans bending over to please the left instead of leading the country and doing what is right. We can only pray that the right learns from the mistakes of this election and starts to move back to the right. Having to choose between a democrat or a socialist is disgusting.
OBL is probably smiling because Obama will invite him to the white house, maybe part of his cabinet with Ayers.
Posted 03:19 PM, 10/12/2008
If lower taxes for the rich and less regulation for corporations are the answer to creating a good economy, why are we in so much trouble? The Republican party has been in power for 8 years, and these policies have all but wrecked our country's economy. Now McCain proposes to lower the taxes for the rich yet more, and to pay for a huge givaway to fat cats in Wall Street, paid for with your tax dollars.
Think back, when was the last time you felt secure and prosperous? I'll bet Clinton was President. This is not a coincidence. Vote Obama, if you don't want another Great Depression.
Posted 04:31 PM, 10/12/2008
First, Obama doesn't need Ohio to win!!! Unfortunately, Ohio is one of the few states where race does matter. Why in the world would poor white voters with no health insurance, and who are losing their jobs in roves vote for a candidate like McCain who basically opposes everything that could increase their quality of life. People please inform yourselves on the issues at stake. McCain states that we will be in Iraq "I suppose for 100 years." It will be the poor black and white children of Ohio and other less socially progressive states that will be fighting and dying in Iraq. As far as your comment putting a "socialist" in the Whitehouse, I guess it's ok to put millions of Americans on the streets especially in your state. Lisa have you ever volunteered at a homeless shelter? I encourage you to take a trip down to the Summit County courthouse and watch how many citizens from your community are losing there homes. You may think that your job and 401k are safe now--wait until those thieving bast**** on Wall Street finish up.. All of you uninformed Ohio voters will be the main people standing in your church lines begging for food. Hopefully, they can help, after all they told you that Jesus wanted you to vote Republican. I'm not trying to be divisive, but we are all Americans. There is nothing wrong with helping a fellow American who may fall on bad times. We fight and die together in wars; we attend church together; our children go to school together; we all believe in freedom and democracy so please tell me what is wrong with helping a fellow American--a neighbor--a family member who may be experiencing bad times.
Posted 04:45 PM, 10/12/2008
The BRADLEY EFFECT was in 1980, America has changed a lot since 1980. Second, have you ever heard of Gov. Wilder of Virginia. He was Virginia's first black governor in the early 90's. If Gov. Wilder was elected the first black Governor of Virginia, Senator Obama can definitely carry the state especially with the changing demographics of Northern Virginia. With that said, Ohio is no longer relevant!!! I can't believe that a state with such dire conditions could vote Republican. Wake up Ohio--even Mississippi's economy will soon surpass your state.
Posted 04:59 PM, 10/12/2008
State performance has more to do with STATE POLICIES for crissakes. Get a clue! The worst performing states as far as income growth and job growth from 1995-2005 were Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois. The best were Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
Posted 05:06 PM, 10/12/2008
Obama was a member of the FAR-LEFT SOCIALIST "NEW PARTY" who ran on a Democrat ticket in the 1990's, same time terrorist and self-described Communist Ayers was hosting him in his home. PROOF http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=20283 Obama is the most far-left Senator, something the majority of Americans are NOT. Obama will bring socialism to America and destroy us. Wake-up! His district in Chicago is as disastrous as it was before he got there.
Posted 05:15 PM, 10/12/2008
Cook County, which includes Chicago and is run by Chicago Democrats, raised sales tax this year to the highest in the country. First month after, sales receipts down 12%. THESE are the kind of local and state policies that hurt local businesses and jobs.
Posted 06:12 PM, 10/12/2008
Wow, get some fiber in your diet Madelyn!
First, you said Obama would bring socialism to America and it will destroy us. Have you been living in a bubble since 2001? The laundry list is huge for the problems we face RIGHT NOW.
If you mean exploding oil and gas prices, jobs being lost, buried in dept both federal and personal dept, stagflation, two wars with no end, wall street feeding at the trough and screwing all of us and on and on, we already have that now. Did you mean socialism such as Castro's Cuba? Get off the punch.
Take Advil for headaches, Midol for cramps
Posted 07:04 PM, 10/12/2008
Remember, when you slam Obama on race, you are slamming whites, too. Obama's 50% white. The men who have ruined our national reputation, brought us to bankruptcy and slaughtered tens of thousands of innocent people are 100% white.
Posted 09:29 PM, 10/12/2008
Polls are nothing but loaded questions and they choose who is taking the poll. Look at the polls that asks one simple question. Who do you want for President that allows anyone to vote. If someone takes the time to actually fill out the required BS that tries to limit them to one vote I would find that to be a much better poll.
Posted 12:00 AM, 10/13/2008
Madelyn you are dead wrong!!! You need to get a grip. The rust belt were the worst performing states after Bush II took office in terms of (economic growth, unemployment, etc,). State policies have a lot to do with federal aid and assistance you idiot!!! Look at the policies of the Bush administration in favoring corporate greed,national debt and deregulation. Know your facts!!! You Republicans believe in trickle down economics so much--so why can't you understand that the national debt, the Iraqi war all took away from state economies that needed vital federal investment in their state infrastructure, and the modernization of retraining the rust belt workers. I see that you Madelyn are not very well in articulating the trickle down effect!!!
Posted 07:03 AM, 10/13/2008
Barack should be 20 points ahead in the Ohio poll. Obviously some people feel they are better off than others.
Posted 08:17 AM, 10/13/2008
Frankly, it is time to vote out every incumbent in both washington AND columbus. The new guys may still mess things up, but it's hard to see how they could do much worse than the current crop of self aggrandizing crooks.
San Antonio, TX
Posted 12:19 PM, 10/13/2008
There are approximately 303,000,000 people in the United States. If the bail out gave 1 million to every person that would be 303 Billion. The populous could pay off all their debt and put all that lost money back into their 40l's or IRA's and the banks and the rest of the credit world would be just fine. Now how do we pay off that 1 million each. Good question. I say take some of it from all the executives who helped themselves before the economy went under. Call it fines for Insider trade knmowledge,call it fines for miss representing all retirement funds. Take their money and put them in the same situation we are in now. If it weren't for thr bail out all lost money on mortgages and credit cards would of been writen off any way and industries would of been given huge tax credits. Just give the general population, making under 1/4 million, the bankers tax consideration in the form of their money that would of gone to the bail out.
