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TV may be off at decent hour if key states go Obama's way
By Rich Heldenfels
Beacon Journal popular culture writer
POSTED: 02:08 p.m. EST, Nov 03, 2008
One way or another, television will be covering a historic election tonight.
But it may also be one where you can go to bed early.
That's the word, at least, from Stephen C. Brooks, associate professor of political science at the University of Akron.
Asked about things people can look for when watching the results, Brooks quickly pointed to some of the key states where voting closes relatively early, including Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.
''If they are all called [for Obama], it could signal that we are all going to get a good night's sleep,'' he said. With so many key states in the eastern part of the United States, he said, ''I have heard that the networks are talking about having alternate programming late in the evening.''
But so far the networks are committed to a full night of telecasts. And even if they go into the wee hours with electoral drama, Brooks thought you won't have to go to work bleary-eyed on Wednesday.
If the battleground states start to break for McCain, he said, ''it could all be up in the air. And you could still get a good night's sleep, because it might be days before it's all settled.''
Is that possible?
''As I look at the electoral map, there are ways McCain could win — two or three, maybe four ways,'' Brooks said. ''But the ways Obama could win are probably five times that many.''
George Stephanopoulos, chief Washington correspondent for ABC News and a former Clevelander, said something similar in a recent online column.
He picked Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida as the states to watch early in the evening, dubbing them ''the canaries in the coal mine.''
''McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on This Week that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency,'' Stephanopoulos said. ''He could get there by holding all of the Bush states — Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina — and losing Pennsylvania. But he will then need to secure Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado and all the rest of the GOP safe seats later in the evening.''
If McCain also wins Pennsylvania, he has more options. He could lose Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, Stephanopoulos said, but still pull out a win. But if Obama took Pennsylvania and one of the other five states on Stephanopoulos's early-watch list, ''only a John McCain miracle later in the evening can deny Obama the White House.''
Still, there may be signs of how the election is going well before the networks start projecting the majority of races.
''It's very interesting when they start analyzing the exit polls,'' Brooks said. Those polls could give an indication of what is happening with the numbers of youth voters, or first-time voters.
''That can help [viewers] think that, if this or that trend continues, the election could move one way or another,'' Brooks said.
Beyond the calling of states and the election, the major news organizations know that this will provide a historic night — one proclaiming either the first African-American president or first woman vice president. But it also marks a major changing of the guard in television itself since the last presidential election.
In 2004, we settled in with Peter Jennings on ABC, Dan Rather on CBS and Tom Brokaw on NBC. Brokaw will be around this time, but as a special correspondent. Brian Williams is in the big chair.
Jennings died of cancer in 2005. Charles Gibson succeeded him, and will co-anchor election coverage with Diane Sawyer and Stephanopoulos.
Katie Couric has replaced Dan Rather. And this may be a last hurrah for Fox's Brit Hume, who will be cutting back his workload as the year ends.
Then there's the passing of former Clevelander Tim Russert, one of the happiest TV warriors on election nights, eager to talk strategy and scribble numbers on the way to figuring the night's outcome. Russert died of a heart attack in June.
That's all of interest to people who follow television closely. But perhaps not to people who just want to know who is winning.
While saying first that he follows politics more closely than the news media, Brooks added, ''I'm not sure how much viewers are concerned about those kinds of things [like changing anchors]. . . . They're more interested in total coverage.''
Rich Heldenfels writes about popular culture for the Beacon Journal and in the HeldenFiles Online blog at http://heldenfels.ohio.com. He can be reached at 330-996-3582 or rheldenfels@thebeaconjournal.com.
One way or another, television will be covering a historic election tonight.
But it may also be one where you can go to bed early.
That's the word, at least, from Stephen C. Brooks, associate professor of political science at the University of Akron.
Asked about things people can look for when watching the results, Brooks quickly pointed to some of the key states where voting closes relatively early, including Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.
''If they are all called [for Obama], it could signal that we are all going to get a good night's sleep,'' he said. With so many key states in the eastern part of the United States, he said, ''I have heard that the networks are talking about having alternate programming late in the evening.''
But so far the networks are committed to a full night of telecasts. And even if they go into the wee hours with electoral drama, Brooks thought you won't have to go to work bleary-eyed on Wednesday.
If the battleground states start to break for McCain, he said, ''it could all be up in the air. And you could still get a good night's sleep, because it might be days before it's all settled.''
Is that possible?
''As I look at the electoral map, there are ways McCain could win — two or three, maybe four ways,'' Brooks said. ''But the ways Obama could win are probably five times that many.''
George Stephanopoulos, chief Washington correspondent for ABC News and a former Clevelander, said something similar in a recent online column.
He picked Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida as the states to watch early in the evening, dubbing them ''the canaries in the coal mine.''
''McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on This Week that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency,'' Stephanopoulos said. ''He could get there by holding all of the Bush states — Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina — and losing Pennsylvania. But he will then need to secure Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado and all the rest of the GOP safe seats later in the evening.''
If McCain also wins Pennsylvania, he has more options. He could lose Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, Stephanopoulos said, but still pull out a win. But if Obama took Pennsylvania and one of the other five states on Stephanopoulos's early-watch list, ''only a John McCain miracle later in the evening can deny Obama the White House.''
Still, there may be signs of how the election is going well before the networks start projecting the majority of races.
''It's very interesting when they start analyzing the exit polls,'' Brooks said. Those polls could give an indication of what is happening with the numbers of youth voters, or first-time voters.
''That can help [viewers] think that, if this or that trend continues, the election could move one way or another,'' Brooks said.
Beyond the calling of states and the election, the major news organizations know that this will provide a historic night — one proclaiming either the first African-American president or first woman vice president. But it also marks a major changing of the guard in television itself since the last presidential election.
In 2004, we settled in with Peter Jennings on ABC, Dan Rather on CBS and Tom Brokaw on NBC. Brokaw will be around this time, but as a special correspondent. Brian Williams is in the big chair.
Jennings died of cancer in 2005. Charles Gibson succeeded him, and will co-anchor election coverage with Diane Sawyer and Stephanopoulos.
Katie Couric has replaced Dan Rather. And this may be a last hurrah for Fox's Brit Hume, who will be cutting back his workload as the year ends.
Then there's the passing of former Clevelander Tim Russert, one of the happiest TV warriors on election nights, eager to talk strategy and scribble numbers on the way to figuring the night's outcome. Russert died of a heart attack in June.
That's all of interest to people who follow television closely. But perhaps not to people who just want to know who is winning.
While saying first that he follows politics more closely than the news media, Brooks added, ''I'm not sure how much viewers are concerned about those kinds of things [like changing anchors]. . . . They're more interested in total coverage.''
Rich Heldenfels writes about popular culture for the Beacon Journal and in the HeldenFiles Online blog at http://heldenfels.ohio.com. He can be reached at 330-996-3582 or rheldenfels@thebeaconjournal.com.
Comments
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Posted 08:38 PM, 11/03/2008
America is a pretty scary place tonight – tomorrow we’ll know if we will continue to suffer for 4 more years under the same failed policies that Democrats and Republicans have been shoving to us for too long. The economy here and abroad is teetering on the edge of collapse – we’re talking the 1930s Great Depression – and the Demopublicans have NO CLUE what to do about it!
A vote for either McCain or Obama means aiding and abetting our slide into corporate socialism. McCain and Obama cannot deny that they and their parties – the Democrats and Republicans, worked together recently to ram a Bailout through Congress in a climate of fear. McCain and Obama joined together like two sides of the same coin in a gigantic scam that pretends to treat the symptoms of Wall Street’s securitization scam, but it does not address the root causes and will do nothing to alleviate the symptoms.
The Bailout rewards the reckless and perhaps illegal behavior of securitization traders that weakened Wall Street in the first place! Left unchecked, Mc-Bama’s Bailout will crush the economy while socializing our formerly free enterprises by concentrating financial power in giant megabanks partly owned by the government and in the hands of the U.S. Treasury Dep’t. Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) put it best when he said before Congress – “We’re all Democrats now”!
There is a better way: vote for CHUCK BALDWIN of the Constitution Party. Chuck Baldwin’s idea is that Wall Street should pay for fixing the problems it created in the first place. Baldwin’s plan would not only strengthen our financial system for the long run, but Baldwin’s plan would also protect the interests of the taxpaying public. Vote Right, Vote Baldwin. www.Baldwin08.com
Posted 08:41 PM, 11/03/2008
Why waste your vote on McCain? Polls show he can't win. Vote for a good conservative and Christian. Vote in accordance to your conscience. Chuck Baldwin is a good conservative Christian man.
Posted 10:48 PM, 11/03/2008
Joe was eaten alive by the media. So is Sarah Palin. And so was Ronald Reagan. In these last moments, let's hear from the Gipper. He had a few words to say about Muammar Quadaffi, who is now supporting Senator Obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l18MKmarVTw
We need to perhaps, "connect the dots." It is not Reverend Wright's bombastic sermonizing, but his actions. What was he doing in Libya visiting Muammar Quadaffi BEFORE Muammar's Berlin bombing in 1986? Obama plus Wright plus Wright's visit with QUADAFFI = Quadaffi endorsement? You do the math. Muammar has too often been left out of the troika. In the meantime, email this link to your college students who may have never heard Reagan's speech. National security does cost money and requires actions. We're sleeping well today because someone dealt with Quadaffi in the 80's.
What's with Obama asking for a "nationalized" police force? This is just getting a little over the top. www.campuschangers.com
Posted 11:55 PM, 11/03/2008
What the Media has been hiding from you:
http://www.ObamasPast.com
Posted 08:48 AM, 11/04/2008
Keep listneing to Rush Limbaugh and Fox news instead of forming any opinions of your own. Follow their every word like a good little decilpleand never have an independent thought or idea of your own. You are a robot. Now for the next four years you and your fellow cult members will listen to Rush and Fox news and do everything in your power to try and get Obama impeached or dig up dirt on him instead of trying to do your part to better your country.
Sarah Palin is an empty suit chosen solely because she was a woman to try and pick up votes from Hillary Clinton supporters. She is not intelligent and not quallified to be VP of the PTA let alone the USA.
Posted 09:28 AM, 11/04/2008
Hey John -- it's good to know we couldn't go without hearing from the loser and ignorant Republicans like yourself. Loser. Get a life.
