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Although most teams with 3-1 series lead advance, a look at past might disturb Tribe fans; Carmona can calm them
By Patrick McManamon
Beacon Journal columnist
Published on Saturday, Oct 20, 2007
So why did the Indians not want to return to Chowdah Town, and why were the Red Sox so eager to go back home?
Consider:
Fourteen teams that led one of baseball's championship series three games to one went to Game 7, where the team that had the 3-1 lead lost 10 of 14 times.
The last team with a 3-1 series lead that was pushed to a seventh game and won was the 1992 Atlanta Braves, who beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, thanks to the immortal Sid Bream beating the not-so-immortal Barry Bonds' throw to the plate.
Ten of the past 13 teams that have led the American League Championship Series 3-1 won the series. But eight of those 10 teams won it in Game 5.
Six ALCS and NLCS teams that led 3-1 were forced to a Game 7. Their record in those games: 3-3, which would pretty much make Game 7 a 50-50 proposition.
These are the reasons the Red Sox wanted to go back to their infernal ''nation.''
But when you think about it, only one statistic matters, and that's the final score of tonight's game.
Fans making the trudge down the steps of Jacobs Field on Thursday were chanting, ''Let's go, Fausto.''
The Indians' hopes do rest with Carmona, and Carmona has given reason for hope.
There's his 19-8 record and 3.06 ERA.
And his nasty sinkers that threaten to break the toes of hitters who just don't like that kind of pitch.
And his attitude that enabled him to pitch through the bug swarm against the New York Yankees.
And his record in the last 10 games of the regular season: 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA and no appearance shorter than six innings.
These aren't quality starts. They're high-quality starts. Worthy of a ''nation.''
What does he have to do?
''Pitch his game,'' C.C. Sabathia said. ''Do the same thing he's been doing all year, and we'll be fine.''
Who'd have thought Kevin Youkilis would be more productive than Travis Hafner?
It's officially time to be concerned about Hafner.
His bat has turned into a black hole in the third spot of the lineup. He's hitting .158 in the ALCS, with eight strikeouts in 19 at-bats.
Hafner is swinging as if his 401(k)'s fate rests on every pitch.
''Sometimes he'll out-think himself . . . ,'' manager Eric Wedge said. ''He just needs to go up there and hit. . . . I think right now he's getting in his own way a little bit.''
To say the least.
One side of this is that Hafner had two bad matchups in the past two games. He's a fastball hitter, and Tim Wakefield's knuckleballs drove him batty (or buggy, as the case may be). Josh Beckett made a lot of Indians hitters look bad.
The other side is that this is the playoffs, and the Indians can't afford to have Hafner hitting third, the way he's swinging.
One option: Swap him with Jhonny Peralta, who has been batting sixth.
It's an option, but don't expect Wedge to exercise that option.
Wedge faults hitters
Speaking of Beckett, Wedge came down on his players for their approach against the Red Sox starter.
''We were in between all night long,'' Wedge said.
What does that mean?
That they were guessing not waiting on the fastball, not timing the off-speed stuff.
''When you've got somebody throwing against you like that with that type of stuff, you can't live in between,'' Wedge said. ''You've got to make some decisions. You've got to take some chances, get after it.''
Beckett vs. Lofton
Beckett and Indians outfielder Kenny Lofton had some serious words.
Beckett said the pair's differences go back a few years.
Lofton said Beckett doesn't like the way he drops his bat at home plate when he draws a walk. Lofton did just that when he thought he walked on a 3-and-0 pitch that was called a strike. When he flied out on the next pitch, Beckett started yelling at Lofton immediately, and Lofton yelled back as he ran to first.
''I guess he's been in the game 20 years and can tell guys what they can and can't do,'' Lofton said. ''That's who he is. He's that kind of guy.''
Said Beckett: ''Those things have a way of working themselves out.''
Wouldn't want to be Lofton's ribs the next time he faces Beckett in the regular season.
Unresolved issues
More Beckett: Apparently he and country singer Danielle Peck once dated.
Peck sang the national anthem Thursday after Taylor Swift canceled. The Indians said they knew nothing of Beckett and Peck's relationship, and they brought in Peck because she's from Coshocton and is a fan.
Asked after the game about it, Beckett snapped: ''I don't get paid enough to make those decisions.'' Except he also used a bad word.
He wasn't finished.
''Thanks for flying a friend here and letting her see the game for free,'' he added.
All righty, then.
Schilling looms
Curt Schilling scares me.
No, he's not the same Curt Schilling of a few years ago, but he had a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 regular-season starts, and he was outstanding against the Los Angeles Angels.
Schilling did not pitch well against the Indians, but he manned up and reached out to take the blame by making a surprise appearance in the interview room to say the game was about ''me coming up small in a big game.''
A veteran pitcher such as Schilling?
Just a bit concerning.
Perspective
Final statement comes from Paul Byrd:
''If you'd have said we go back to Boston, and all we have to do is win a game, we'd have taken that.''
Patrick McManamon can be reached at pmcmanamon@thebeaconjournal.com. Read his blog at http://www.ohiomm.com/blogs/mcmanamon/.
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