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By Patrick McManamon
Beacon Journal sports columnist
POSTED: 12:43 p.m. EDT, Jun 04, 2008
There was a time when predicting an NFL team's success (or lack of) based on a schedule was not that difficult.
In a not-too-distant past, teams did not yo-yo from one season to the next, go from good to bad or bad to good overnight.
These days, it's a little tougher to predict what will happen in the fall during the summer. Evidence: The Browns schedule last year, when three of the first four games seemed brutal in June but in September turned out to be merely a minor annoyance.
That being said, there is one clear conclusion to draw from the Brown schedule for 2008: It's brutal.
That's right now, in June.
It's brutal, with five of the first seven games against playoff teams from a year ago — playoff teams that give many indications they will return to the playoffs.
There's also those prime-time games, four in the first 10. They've drawn notice around the league, with players pretty much smirking at the thought a non-playoff team can get five prime-time opportunities.
Such is life with the big dogs in the NFL. And you know what they say about the big dogs and the porch.
So the Browns best be ready.
A tone can be set for NFL seasons early, which makes the Browns' first two weeks a significant challenge. The opener will be against free-flinging Tony Romo, Terrell Owens , Marion Barber and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys feel like they are a legitimate Super Bowl team, and Jerry Jones will want to make certain he puts on a good show on national TV in the opener.
Welcome to the world of defensive coordinating, Mel Tucker.
The second week is no easier. It's against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team the Browns have not beat since the Great Depression. Until the Browns beat them, there's no reason to believe they will.
The next two games are on the road, at the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Winnable games, certainly, but the Browns did lose in Cincinnati late last season and needed a miracle of sorts off the Dawson Bar to win in Baltimore.
Neither game is easy.
Next is a prime-time visit from the New York Giants, followed by trips to the Washington Redskins and Jacksonville Jaguars. Tough games all — especially in Jacksonville.
In the vernacular, the opening seven games (plus a bye) would be called ''eight tough weeks.''
A 4-3 mark coming out of those games would be good. A 5-2 mark would be reason to start buying playoff tickets.
The next four weeks are at home against the Ravens and the Denver Broncos and on the road at the Buffalo Bills (at night) and Houston Texans.
A good season means the Browns need three wins, at least, in this four-game stretch — starting with the first two home games. Winning these will be essential. Because the Browns can't afford to lay a stinker against a team it should beat. They did that last year at the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals, if you recall. Beating one of those teams would have meant a playoff spot.
Three -for-four in this stretch could have the Browns at 7-4 or 8-3 — if they survive the ''eight tough weeks.'' That would have them in position to make a serious playoff push.
The final games are a mixed bag.
The Indianapolis Colts at home will be very tough, especially if the Colts rest their starters and play Jim Sorgi. We all saw how tough the Colts are with that guy at the helm. Three of the final four are on the road, at the Tennessee Titans, at Philadelphia Eagles (at night) and at the Steelers in the season finale.
Sandwiched in there is a home game against the Bengals.
Imagine a split with the Colts and Titans and a win over the Bengals, and the Browns could have 10 or 11 wins heading into the finale. Which is at Pittsburgh. Where the Browns have not won since the Teapot Dome Scandal.
If a playoff spot comes down to the final game, it will be an exciting week of buildup, of hype, of talk. But it will also be a huge amount of pressure on the Browns to win a game in Pittsburgh, where they have not won since the Dred Scott decision came down.
It'd be fun if that game were for a playoff spot, but it'd also be best for the Browns that it not come down to that game.
The key to the Browns season?
Hoping that some of these playoff teams they face from a year ago have a dropoff. The Redskins look like they might have the potential for a dropoff. The Giants face a season when every team will bring their best to beat the Super Bowl teams. The Titans do not seem to be all that.
But the thing is that every team in the AFC North plays the same schedule, so a dropoff from other teams might not be that significant because other teams play the same schedule.
So here's four realistic keys, now, in June:
1 — Surviving the opener with morale intact, a tough, tough assignment.
2 — Beating the Steelers. Finally. You know it hasn't happened since the Monroe Doctrine was issued, right?
3 — Beating the teams they should beat.
4 — Coming out of the ''eight tough weeks'' with a winning record.
Those three things happen, we could be talking football in January.
Patrick McManamon can be reached at pmcmanamon@thebeaconjournal.com. Read his blog at http://www.ohiomm.com/blogs/mcmanamon/.
There was a time when predicting an NFL team's success (or lack of) based on a schedule was not that difficult.
In a not-too-distant past, teams did not yo-yo from one season to the next, go from good to bad or bad to good overnight.
These days, it's a little tougher to predict what will happen in the fall during the summer. Evidence: The Browns schedule last year, when three of the first four games seemed brutal in June but in September turned out to be merely a minor annoyance.
That being said, there is one clear conclusion to draw from the Brown schedule for 2008: It's brutal.
That's right now, in June.
It's brutal, with five of the first seven games against playoff teams from a year ago — playoff teams that give many indications they will return to the playoffs.
There's also those prime-time games, four in the first 10. They've drawn notice around the league, with players pretty much smirking at the thought a non-playoff team can get five prime-time opportunities.
Such is life with the big dogs in the NFL. And you know what they say about the big dogs and the porch.
So the Browns best be ready.
A tone can be set for NFL seasons early, which makes the Browns' first two weeks a significant challenge. The opener will be against free-flinging Tony Romo, Terrell Owens , Marion Barber and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys feel like they are a legitimate Super Bowl team, and Jerry Jones will want to make certain he puts on a good show on national TV in the opener.
Welcome to the world of defensive coordinating, Mel Tucker.
The second week is no easier. It's against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team the Browns have not beat since the Great Depression. Until the Browns beat them, there's no reason to believe they will.
The next two games are on the road, at the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Winnable games, certainly, but the Browns did lose in Cincinnati late last season and needed a miracle of sorts off the Dawson Bar to win in Baltimore.
Neither game is easy.
Next is a prime-time visit from the New York Giants, followed by trips to the Washington Redskins and Jacksonville Jaguars. Tough games all — especially in Jacksonville.
In the vernacular, the opening seven games (plus a bye) would be called ''eight tough weeks.''
A 4-3 mark coming out of those games would be good. A 5-2 mark would be reason to start buying playoff tickets.
The next four weeks are at home against the Ravens and the Denver Broncos and on the road at the Buffalo Bills (at night) and Houston Texans.
A good season means the Browns need three wins, at least, in this four-game stretch — starting with the first two home games. Winning these will be essential. Because the Browns can't afford to lay a stinker against a team it should beat. They did that last year at the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals, if you recall. Beating one of those teams would have meant a playoff spot.
Three -for-four in this stretch could have the Browns at 7-4 or 8-3 — if they survive the ''eight tough weeks.'' That would have them in position to make a serious playoff push.
The final games are a mixed bag.
The Indianapolis Colts at home will be very tough, especially if the Colts rest their starters and play Jim Sorgi. We all saw how tough the Colts are with that guy at the helm. Three of the final four are on the road, at the Tennessee Titans, at Philadelphia Eagles (at night) and at the Steelers in the season finale.
Sandwiched in there is a home game against the Bengals.
Imagine a split with the Colts and Titans and a win over the Bengals, and the Browns could have 10 or 11 wins heading into the finale. Which is at Pittsburgh. Where the Browns have not won since the Teapot Dome Scandal.
If a playoff spot comes down to the final game, it will be an exciting week of buildup, of hype, of talk. But it will also be a huge amount of pressure on the Browns to win a game in Pittsburgh, where they have not won since the Dred Scott decision came down.
It'd be fun if that game were for a playoff spot, but it'd also be best for the Browns that it not come down to that game.
The key to the Browns season?
Hoping that some of these playoff teams they face from a year ago have a dropoff. The Redskins look like they might have the potential for a dropoff. The Giants face a season when every team will bring their best to beat the Super Bowl teams. The Titans do not seem to be all that.
But the thing is that every team in the AFC North plays the same schedule, so a dropoff from other teams might not be that significant because other teams play the same schedule.
So here's four realistic keys, now, in June:
1 — Surviving the opener with morale intact, a tough, tough assignment.
2 — Beating the Steelers. Finally. You know it hasn't happened since the Monroe Doctrine was issued, right?
3 — Beating the teams they should beat.
4 — Coming out of the ''eight tough weeks'' with a winning record.
Those three things happen, we could be talking football in January.
Patrick McManamon can be reached at pmcmanamon@thebeaconjournal.com. Read his blog at http://www.ohiomm.com/blogs/mcmanamon/.
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