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Do IT this week: Layering
By Patrick McManamon
Beacon Journal sports writer
POSTED: 06:22 p.m. EDT, Jul 18, 2009
The Indians have problems.
They have a talent problem, a pitching problem, a usage of the players problem and an economic problem.
Lots of problems.
Including a ''one of those years'' problem.
When a team trades for a relief pitcher and said pitcher has done a good job all season but gets blown up in his first appearance with the Indians. . .well, it's just one of those years.
Especially when the relief pitcher reveals he'll need offseason foot surgery.
One of the bigger problems the Indians face will be a sales problem.
The team must sell its product to fans in a very difficult economy to sell anything. Fans in response must buy tickets and watch on TV and spend on merchandise and all that kind of stuff while seeing their income decrease and the jobs disappear.
Unlike the Browns, who can put an orange helmet on the field with a bunch of beanie babies underneath it and sell out, the Indians must produce.
The team's annual budget is not solely a product of ticket sales.
But ticket sales are a factor, and the team's player budget is based on projections.
At this point, the projection for 2010 can't be pretty.
That's because of the economy nationally — seen the NBA's projections lately? — and in Northeast Ohio, and because the results from 2009 have been dismal.
Nobody likes to hear about the economy affecting a team, but it's reality.
The Boston Red Sox can sign and waive a Julio Lugo for $9 million, and folks shrug. The Indians are pilloried for David Dellucci. Not that anyone is wrong. That's just the reality.
The Indians' success of 2007 did not produce a significant bump in revenue, but the struggles of 2008 and '09 did produce a significant hit.
It's hard to see another ''strong finish so we feel good about ourselves'' making that much of a difference.
To buy tickets next season, fans have to believe in the product.
At this point, the fans have to be disgruntled.
So the Indians must answer a few questions:
-- Will trading marketable players this season for more prospects sell the fans that next season will be successful?
The Indians believe in the young talent in their minor-league system. They have to, and folks like Matt LaPorta had better come through.
Victor Martinez is an excellent player. He would bring a handsome passel in return.
Cliff Lee has his quirks, but he's pitching very well after a slow start. He, too, would bring a handsome return.
But is it worth trading two of the three cornerstones — Grady Sizemore being the other — when it essentially tells the fans the trade was made for the future and not for next season?
The Indians would have to be compelled to make that kind of trade.
-- Will trading other parts help?
Rumor has it that guys like Rafael Betancourt, Carl Pavano and maybe even Kerry Wood can be had.
If the deal is right, it's a good thing. I wasn't sold on the trade of Mark DeRosa, but if the Indians get a legitimate pitcher as the player to be named, then it was probably worth it.
But the danger in selling off more and more parts also sends a subtle message to fans that a rebuild is under way.
Which isn't good for 2010.
-- Will the team have a clear focus and direction by the time the end of the season rolls around?
Lineup changes sometimes come by nature, because of injury or the like.
But the Indians' lineup switches this season have been many, varied and mind-boggling.
If Jhonny Peralta was going to move to third, the move should have been made last February.
If DeRosa was not going to have a position, why acquire him? Name the last midseason 50-RBI guy who did not have a regular position.
Kelly Shoppach is a backup catcher, Ryan Garko a first baseman.
Though you could make the case that Sizemore is a No. 3 hitter, he's also done well leading off.
If the Indians were going to lead him off, why did it take so long to make the order the way it was in the first game after the All-Star break, with Sizemore leading off, Asdrubal Cabrera second, Shin-Soo Choo third, Martinez fourth and Travis Hafner fifth?
Heck. . .one could even think that if Peralta gets his mind right, he could hit sixth and that wouldn't be a bad first six — if everyone's healthy, of course.
The Indians were flailing badly in the first half, and that flailing obscured the direction.
Much of that happened because manager Eric Wedge was searching for an answer. There's no sin in trying to find a way to win.
Wedge said Thursday that he has always wanted consistency with the lineup, but injuries and struggles prompted changes.
Whatever.
At this point, fans need to know a direction.
-- Will the young players straighten themselves out?
Fausto Carmona's lack of progress was shocking. Rafael Perez fell apart. Jensen Lewis is back in the minors. Ben Francisco has been a disappointment.
Meanwhile, Franklin Gutierrez is hitting .295 with 10 home runs with the Seattle Mariners.
Gutierrez was not very good in Cleveland last year, and he was traded because the Indians had an excess of outfielders and the team felt Joe Smith, who came from the New York Mets in the three-team deal, would help in the bullpen.
But with the Mariners, Gutierrez has been given a position, played 83 games (heading into Friday) and done pretty well.
There's something not right about the way some of the Indians' young guys hit the major leagues and then level off or drop off.
The Indians need to be able to tell their fans that young guys who show promise will not be here one month and back in AAA (or rookie ball) the next.
-- Will the fans continue to buy into the manager?
A critical issue in Wedge's future is whether the team — and by extension, the fans — believes in him.
A manager's message lasts so long, and when a team loses, the message dims.
It's safe to say that General Manager Mark Shapiro does not want to fire Wedge. He believes in Wedge, and he believes the talent is the main problem this season.
There are some in baseball who believe a manager doesn't win a lot of games, but can lose them. The team's thinking is Wedge is not losing a lot of games, the talent is. That is why Shapiro has stated publicly he is responsible for the season.
Wedge very rarely offers a public glimpse of his emotions, but behind closed doors, he's different, we are told.
He could blow up occasionally, and fans might rave about the fire. But it won't help Jeremy Sowers in the sixth inning.
Wedge simply needs to win.
He's been plagued by poor starts, and this season has done the lineup shuffle.
Firing a manager can be an easy out — except when the manager's message has become tired and worn out. It well could be that the Indians decide that Wedge's tenure has run its course.
But who's next?
If Wedge goes, it would make sense to bring in someone with the opposite personality. It's hard to see the Indians hiring an Ozzie Guillen, but that might be what's needed.
Another calm, placid, grind-it-out guy — funny how that message sounds OK when a team is winning the division but sounds silly when it struggles — would not seem to excite the fans. Nor would promoting a guy from the team's minor-league system.
This might not be fair to Torey Luvullo, the team's top candidate in the minor leagues, but it is what it is.
The perception is that the Indians live on the cusp of a spiral.
A bad season or two hurt future attendance, which leads to decreased payrolls, which lead to fewer wins, which lead to lower attendance, which leads to even lower payrolls, etc.
Sometimes perceptions are just that.
But other times, perceptions are reality. The local economy is not strong. The Cavaliers right now dominate the sports marketplace, and the Browns are the Browns.
The Indians need to win.
The team has said that basing payrolls on attendance and tickets oversimplifies things.
But much of the team's budgeting is based on how the fans respond to the product, and right now there has to be concern.
The team needs to know that the fans believe in the direction it is heading, which means the fans believe in the people taking it in said direction.
As the Indians evaluate the future, one of the more critical questions it must answer is: Will the fans buy into the program with the people we have leading the program?
Browns legends delayed
The Browns will not honor a Legends class this year. The team is taking a one-year hiatus to reassess the program.
The program is a wise one that was run well by Dino Lucarelli and the team's Alumni Relations folks. Players chosen were worthy, and the weekend they were given was memorable and special.
To date, deserving players were selected.
But. . .some reassessment was needed.
Because the criteria for deciding on the Legends meant that eventually selectors would run out of players.
Past criteria meant that one player from several eras had to be selected. Logic dictates that over time, the selection committee would run out of players.
Criteria easily could have been changed in the offseason to allow a class to be inducted this year, but it also makes sense to evaluate the program.
Random thoughts
-- The entire ''finish strong'' concept for the Indians is interesting.
Baseball players are paid extremely well — annual average salary is $3.2 million — to play a game. They work hard at it, no question. But they are privileged to play the game and paid handsomely for doing so.
Isn't the best effort the least anyone can expect, no matter the record?
Guys who take days off when games are played usually are guys who wind up on the bench.
-- A few folks sent some entertaining e-mail about Ray Fosse, whom I wrote about last week. Fosse was run over by Pete Rose in the All-Star Game in 1970 and never recovered.
Richard Platt of Fairborn points out that there was another player whose career was ruined in an All-Star Game.
Dizzy Dean was hit on the foot by a line drive, continued to pitch and altered his pitching motion.
He eventually hurt his arm, which ruined his career.
The person who hit the line drive? Earl Averill.
His team? The Indians.
-- Perhaps Fosse's injury was karma.
-- One anonymous e-mailer pointed out that Fosse's post-collision struggles led him to be traded to the Oakland Athletics, where he won two World Series rings.
''If Fosse hadn't been hurt, he would have probably finished his career with this godforsaken club,'' wrote the anonymous one. ''Betcha he wouldn't trade those rings for a free ticket to nickel beer night.''
Touche.
-- Can't believe I missed the ESPYs again.
What in the world was I thinking?
-- Richard Jefferson of the San Antonio Spurs broke off his engagement via e-mail.
And males wonder why the females of the world have problems with us as a species?
Until next time. . .there you have it.
Oops
The Cavs did their part in offering LeBron James a contract extension, but I made a mistake when writing last week about his possible free agency.
The Cavs cannot offer James more in the first year of his contract than any other team. Every team can offer James the same amount.
The Cavs' advantage comes in offering an extra year on the contract, and in the annual raises.
Teams can give their own player a 10.5 percent raise per year, while teams signing a player from another team can offer an 8 percent raise.
If James opts out of his deal after this season, every team could offer him a contract worth $16.6 in 2010-11. (That's less than the $17.15 million he'd earn by picking up his Cleveland option.)
The total deal the Cavs could offer if James opts out (in rough terms): six years for $125.5 million.
The total deal another team could offer: five years, $96.1 million.
All this would change, though, if James accepts the Cavs' offer of a contract extension.
Thanks to the NBA for the information, and for pointing out the error.
The Indians have problems.
They have a talent problem, a pitching problem, a usage of the players problem and an economic problem.
Lots of problems.
Including a ''one of those years'' problem.
When a team trades for a relief pitcher and said pitcher has done a good job all season but gets blown up in his first appearance with the Indians. . .well, it's just one of those years.
Especially when the relief pitcher reveals he'll need offseason foot surgery.
One of the bigger problems the Indians face will be a sales problem.
The team must sell its product to fans in a very difficult economy to sell anything. Fans in response must buy tickets and watch on TV and spend on merchandise and all that kind of stuff while seeing their income decrease and the jobs disappear.
Unlike the Browns, who can put an orange helmet on the field with a bunch of beanie babies underneath it and sell out, the Indians must produce.
The team's annual budget is not solely a product of ticket sales.
But ticket sales are a factor, and the team's player budget is based on projections.
At this point, the projection for 2010 can't be pretty.
That's because of the economy nationally — seen the NBA's projections lately? — and in Northeast Ohio, and because the results from 2009 have been dismal.
Nobody likes to hear about the economy affecting a team, but it's reality.
The Boston Red Sox can sign and waive a Julio Lugo for $9 million, and folks shrug. The Indians are pilloried for David Dellucci. Not that anyone is wrong. That's just the reality.
The Indians' success of 2007 did not produce a significant bump in revenue, but the struggles of 2008 and '09 did produce a significant hit.
It's hard to see another ''strong finish so we feel good about ourselves'' making that much of a difference.
To buy tickets next season, fans have to believe in the product.
At this point, the fans have to be disgruntled.
So the Indians must answer a few questions:
-- Will trading marketable players this season for more prospects sell the fans that next season will be successful?
The Indians believe in the young talent in their minor-league system. They have to, and folks like Matt LaPorta had better come through.
Victor Martinez is an excellent player. He would bring a handsome passel in return.
Cliff Lee has his quirks, but he's pitching very well after a slow start. He, too, would bring a handsome return.
But is it worth trading two of the three cornerstones — Grady Sizemore being the other — when it essentially tells the fans the trade was made for the future and not for next season?
The Indians would have to be compelled to make that kind of trade.
-- Will trading other parts help?
Rumor has it that guys like Rafael Betancourt, Carl Pavano and maybe even Kerry Wood can be had.
If the deal is right, it's a good thing. I wasn't sold on the trade of Mark DeRosa, but if the Indians get a legitimate pitcher as the player to be named, then it was probably worth it.
But the danger in selling off more and more parts also sends a subtle message to fans that a rebuild is under way.
Which isn't good for 2010.
-- Will the team have a clear focus and direction by the time the end of the season rolls around?
Lineup changes sometimes come by nature, because of injury or the like.
But the Indians' lineup switches this season have been many, varied and mind-boggling.
If Jhonny Peralta was going to move to third, the move should have been made last February.
If DeRosa was not going to have a position, why acquire him? Name the last midseason 50-RBI guy who did not have a regular position.
Kelly Shoppach is a backup catcher, Ryan Garko a first baseman.
Though you could make the case that Sizemore is a No. 3 hitter, he's also done well leading off.
If the Indians were going to lead him off, why did it take so long to make the order the way it was in the first game after the All-Star break, with Sizemore leading off, Asdrubal Cabrera second, Shin-Soo Choo third, Martinez fourth and Travis Hafner fifth?
Heck. . .one could even think that if Peralta gets his mind right, he could hit sixth and that wouldn't be a bad first six — if everyone's healthy, of course.
The Indians were flailing badly in the first half, and that flailing obscured the direction.
Much of that happened because manager Eric Wedge was searching for an answer. There's no sin in trying to find a way to win.
Wedge said Thursday that he has always wanted consistency with the lineup, but injuries and struggles prompted changes.
Whatever.
At this point, fans need to know a direction.
-- Will the young players straighten themselves out?
Fausto Carmona's lack of progress was shocking. Rafael Perez fell apart. Jensen Lewis is back in the minors. Ben Francisco has been a disappointment.
Meanwhile, Franklin Gutierrez is hitting .295 with 10 home runs with the Seattle Mariners.
Gutierrez was not very good in Cleveland last year, and he was traded because the Indians had an excess of outfielders and the team felt Joe Smith, who came from the New York Mets in the three-team deal, would help in the bullpen.
But with the Mariners, Gutierrez has been given a position, played 83 games (heading into Friday) and done pretty well.
There's something not right about the way some of the Indians' young guys hit the major leagues and then level off or drop off.
The Indians need to be able to tell their fans that young guys who show promise will not be here one month and back in AAA (or rookie ball) the next.
-- Will the fans continue to buy into the manager?
A critical issue in Wedge's future is whether the team — and by extension, the fans — believes in him.
A manager's message lasts so long, and when a team loses, the message dims.
It's safe to say that General Manager Mark Shapiro does not want to fire Wedge. He believes in Wedge, and he believes the talent is the main problem this season.
There are some in baseball who believe a manager doesn't win a lot of games, but can lose them. The team's thinking is Wedge is not losing a lot of games, the talent is. That is why Shapiro has stated publicly he is responsible for the season.
Wedge very rarely offers a public glimpse of his emotions, but behind closed doors, he's different, we are told.
He could blow up occasionally, and fans might rave about the fire. But it won't help Jeremy Sowers in the sixth inning.
Wedge simply needs to win.
He's been plagued by poor starts, and this season has done the lineup shuffle.
Firing a manager can be an easy out — except when the manager's message has become tired and worn out. It well could be that the Indians decide that Wedge's tenure has run its course.
But who's next?
If Wedge goes, it would make sense to bring in someone with the opposite personality. It's hard to see the Indians hiring an Ozzie Guillen, but that might be what's needed.
Another calm, placid, grind-it-out guy — funny how that message sounds OK when a team is winning the division but sounds silly when it struggles — would not seem to excite the fans. Nor would promoting a guy from the team's minor-league system.
This might not be fair to Torey Luvullo, the team's top candidate in the minor leagues, but it is what it is.
The perception is that the Indians live on the cusp of a spiral.
A bad season or two hurt future attendance, which leads to decreased payrolls, which lead to fewer wins, which lead to lower attendance, which leads to even lower payrolls, etc.
Sometimes perceptions are just that.
But other times, perceptions are reality. The local economy is not strong. The Cavaliers right now dominate the sports marketplace, and the Browns are the Browns.
The Indians need to win.
The team has said that basing payrolls on attendance and tickets oversimplifies things.
But much of the team's budgeting is based on how the fans respond to the product, and right now there has to be concern.
The team needs to know that the fans believe in the direction it is heading, which means the fans believe in the people taking it in said direction.
As the Indians evaluate the future, one of the more critical questions it must answer is: Will the fans buy into the program with the people we have leading the program?
Browns legends delayed
The Browns will not honor a Legends class this year. The team is taking a one-year hiatus to reassess the program.
The program is a wise one that was run well by Dino Lucarelli and the team's Alumni Relations folks. Players chosen were worthy, and the weekend they were given was memorable and special.
To date, deserving players were selected.
But. . .some reassessment was needed.
Because the criteria for deciding on the Legends meant that eventually selectors would run out of players.
Past criteria meant that one player from several eras had to be selected. Logic dictates that over time, the selection committee would run out of players.
Criteria easily could have been changed in the offseason to allow a class to be inducted this year, but it also makes sense to evaluate the program.
Random thoughts
-- The entire ''finish strong'' concept for the Indians is interesting.
Baseball players are paid extremely well — annual average salary is $3.2 million — to play a game. They work hard at it, no question. But they are privileged to play the game and paid handsomely for doing so.
Isn't the best effort the least anyone can expect, no matter the record?
Guys who take days off when games are played usually are guys who wind up on the bench.
-- A few folks sent some entertaining e-mail about Ray Fosse, whom I wrote about last week. Fosse was run over by Pete Rose in the All-Star Game in 1970 and never recovered.
Richard Platt of Fairborn points out that there was another player whose career was ruined in an All-Star Game.
Dizzy Dean was hit on the foot by a line drive, continued to pitch and altered his pitching motion.
He eventually hurt his arm, which ruined his career.
The person who hit the line drive? Earl Averill.
His team? The Indians.
-- Perhaps Fosse's injury was karma.
-- One anonymous e-mailer pointed out that Fosse's post-collision struggles led him to be traded to the Oakland Athletics, where he won two World Series rings.
''If Fosse hadn't been hurt, he would have probably finished his career with this godforsaken club,'' wrote the anonymous one. ''Betcha he wouldn't trade those rings for a free ticket to nickel beer night.''
Touche.
-- Can't believe I missed the ESPYs again.
What in the world was I thinking?
-- Richard Jefferson of the San Antonio Spurs broke off his engagement via e-mail.
And males wonder why the females of the world have problems with us as a species?
Until next time. . .there you have it.
Oops
The Cavs did their part in offering LeBron James a contract extension, but I made a mistake when writing last week about his possible free agency.
The Cavs cannot offer James more in the first year of his contract than any other team. Every team can offer James the same amount.
The Cavs' advantage comes in offering an extra year on the contract, and in the annual raises.
Teams can give their own player a 10.5 percent raise per year, while teams signing a player from another team can offer an 8 percent raise.
If James opts out of his deal after this season, every team could offer him a contract worth $16.6 in 2010-11. (That's less than the $17.15 million he'd earn by picking up his Cleveland option.)
The total deal the Cavs could offer if James opts out (in rough terms): six years for $125.5 million.
The total deal another team could offer: five years, $96.1 million.
All this would change, though, if James accepts the Cavs' offer of a contract extension.
Thanks to the NBA for the information, and for pointing out the error.
Comments
Click here to post your comments
Posted 07:00 PM, 07/18/2009
Go Tribe...and take the Browns with ya!!!!
Posted 07:01 PM, 07/18/2009
Guitterez did not play well with the Indians last year because Wedge insisted on playing Dave Dellucci. Guiterrez was only in the against left handers, meaning he would play every fourth day or so. When it became painfully obvious Dellucci was over the hill, Wedge kept him in the lineup. You can't expect a young player to get in the groove playing every fourth day. Wednge has made several bit mistakes like that. Instead of trying to revamp the whole pitching staff, I'd get rid of Carl Willis. He has not produced. The two Cy Young winners were not his product. I can't think of one pitcher he has turned around except for a trip to the minors. Also, Wedge makes some strange on the field decisions. He pinchhitted Shoppach earlier this year with the bases loaded and one out. Of course Shoppach struck out. At the time he had to players on the bench that were contact hitters. Just an example, and there are plenty more. If he doesn't get on his game before the end of the year, I'd be looking. Yea, Ozzie Guillen would be a good choice. He's not afraid to hurt someone's feeling. Just a thought!
Old Faithful, WY
Posted 07:17 PM, 07/18/2009
sizemore is not a #1 or #3 hitter. he's a number 6 or 7.
Cuyahoga Falls, OH
Posted 09:44 PM, 07/18/2009
"But the danger in selling off more and more parts also sends a subtle message to fans that a rebuild is under way."
That's pretty funny, Pat. With the abomination that this team has devolved into, I certainly *HOPE* a rebuild is under way! Sheesh! Haven't we seen for years now that this current roster of underachievers will not win ANYTHING? Absolutely, it's time to rebuild this mess.
Cuyahoga Falls, OH
Posted 10:01 PM, 07/18/2009
Say what you will...Wedge's obsession with the righty-lefty lineup has directly led to his downfall. That alone is his reason for all the "versatility" he's toyed with this year. The obsession to get Shoppach in the lineup (because we're DEVOID of power, Shapiro!) forced constant shifting, inconsistent at-bats for players like Garko who apparently need them to stay sharp, etc.
Garko, however, has never hit consistently enough over the years to justify a spot in the everyday lineup. So we're d---- if we do, d---- if we don't. He's not the answer at 1B. Worse yet is Peralta. Ditto Francisco. And Grady's decline is positively frightening. Victor's disappearance for a month at a time is simply unforgivable.
norka, OH
Posted 10:17 AM, 07/19/2009
PILLORIED? Great Googaly Moogaly!!!
norka, OH
Posted 10:21 AM, 07/19/2009
Oh by the way if you are PILLORIED we can throw garbage and other insane things at you and if you move your head to much we can nail your ears to the wood so you cant move sorta like watching the tribe this year... or dealing with TWC.....LOL
Posted 02:23 PM, 07/19/2009
Patrick:
It is for perspective like this you are most definitely one of the premier sports commentators/analysists/observers in the media of NE Ohio. Thank you for this and all your fine work.
Posted 02:25 PM, 07/19/2009
Though the ridiculous mis-spelling of "analysts" might suggest otherwise, I was not joking. I mean it. Really.
Posted 08:23 AM, 07/20/2009
rruss and Reality Check,
I completely agree and I've actually been saying statements like that all year.
Baseball players produce based on comfortability and these players are not comfortable playing so many different positions as well as moving from 2 to 8 in the lineup day in and day out.
Using your players like this is the exact reason why each Wedge team has played terribly to start the season. The players are stuck in spring training mode because they don't get the playing time they need.
There's a reason why batting .300 is good in baseball, because you have so many attempts as an everyday position player, you're at bats level off to a good production. Going 3-5 one day is great because it picks up an 0-4 day earlier in the week.
The players can't hit for average when their only playing 2 maybe 3 days a week and getting a maximum of 10 at bats.
Name another team in baseball that moves people around as much as the Tribe.
Cleveland, OH
Posted 10:27 AM, 07/20/2009
Reality Check,
Go back and look at Garko's numbers over his last 340 at-bats (the number of at-bats that Victor has had this year).
He's actually been a BETTER hitter than Martinez. Garko should be playing ever single day, period.
NO ONE on the Indians has ever been a consistent hitter under Wedge. He needs to go and should be gone yesterday.
Kensington, CT
Posted 11:56 AM, 07/20/2009
I have been saying in article after article. The talent coming out of the minors pitching or hitting looks good until they are brought up. Then everything falls apart. Either all of our prospects really suck or Willis and Wedge are non-talented idiots. I vote for the later. Fire the whole staff including the bat boy. Give the Akron coaches the Cleveland jobs.
Posted 12:42 PM, 07/20/2009
Hey Cleveland Rox,
Lets not stop with firing the whole coaching staff, we need to clean house in the front office too!
Compare the Indians the past seven years to a smaller market team like the Twins who also have a smaller payroll and you'd agree that we need to get rid of Shapiro and all of his "doublespeak"!
Toledo, oh
Posted 04:06 PM, 07/21/2009
the day Wedge and his worthless coaches are gone I will get on the phone and buy tickets. Not until then. Their rigid uptight manners are destroying the players.
