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Do IT this week: Layering
Published on Sunday, May 18, 2008
It's the middle of May and the Indians still aren't hitting. Maybe they never will.
For the first two months of last season, the Tribe scored 295 runs, hit 63 homers and 95 doubles, and batted .274. There are two weeks left before this season is 2 months old, but with 174 runs, 31 homers and 69 doubles plus a batting average of .236 (through Thursday), it's doubtful the club will equal its production of last year over the same period.
In fact, it probably won't be close. So the Indians need help offensively. No doubt about that. General Manager Mark Shapiro began to make midcourse corrections when he called up Ben Francisco, but the young outfielder can't be expected to turn around the entire offense.
Reviving Travis Hafner would be the biggest boost to the Tribe's offense, but even Hafner isn't Superman.
Maybe there's a larger force involved, an industrywide phenomenon that is shifting the balance of power from hitting to pitching.
By the end of May 2007, the average major-league team had scored 242 runs and had hit 50 home runs. So far this year (and remember, there are two weeks left in the month), teams have scored an average of 186 runs and hit 37 homers.
Offense is down for most teams, though probably more so in Cleveland. Maybe it's 1968 all over again. That was the infamous year when Boston Red Sox hall of fame outfielder Carl Yastrzemski led the American League in batting with a .301 average, and Danny Cater of the Oakland Athletics was second at .290.
National League hitters did a little better. Pete Rose was the batting champ with a .335 average, but the No. 5 hitter batted only .301.
Washington Senators slugger Frank Howard led the AL in home runs with 44, and Willie Horton of the Detroit Tigers was a distant second with 36, the same number hit by San Francisco Giants first baseman Willie McCovey, who led the National League.
It was a pitchers' year, to be sure. Maybe the all-time pitchers' year, at least in modern times. Hall of fame starter Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals was the NL ERA leader with a 1.12 figure. And, no, that is not a misprint. Gibson wasn't the only NL pitcher with an ERA under 2.00. Bobby Bolin of the Giants registered a 1.99 ERA.
In the American League, former Tribe starter Luis Tiant of the Red Sox led with a 1.60 ERA, averaging only 5.3 hits allowed per nine innings. Following him was the Tribe's flame-throwing lefty, Sam McDowell, who posted a 1.81 ERA. Five pitchers in the AL ended the year with ERA's under 2.00.
Denny McLain of the Tigers won the Cy Young Award with a 31-6 record, compiling a 1.96 ERA. Thirty wins couldn't happen now, unless a pitcher won almost all of his starts. But in 1968, four-man rotations were still the rule. Consequently, the top four pitchers in each club started about 40 times.
The 1968 season would be the last year of diminishing offense for a long time. Most fans didn't appreciate the beauty and artistry of 3-1 games day after endless day. Baseball had reached a point of bottom-line boredom, and something had to be done about it.
The next year the mound was lowered 5 inches, and soon the American League — the inferior offensive league — would adopt the designated hitter rule. Scoring eventually ballooned to the point where 500 home-run hitters were almost commonplace, and Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were rendered also-rans by hitters bulked up on steroids.
I'm not saying 2008 is destined to become 1968. No way. But it appears that a shift in the balance between offense and pitching is occurring.
''There have been some strong patterns so far,'' Indians manager Eric Wedge said a few days ago. ''It's too early to take it that far (1968 levels), but most definitely there are signs leading that way.''
If the decline in scoring is here to stay, we know why. Testing for steroids has been in place long enough for players to be scared straight. Nobody knows how many players used performance-enhancing drugs at their peak, and nobody knows whether more than a handful are still trying to beat the system.
My guess is that not many are willing to risk the long suspensions and public ridicule that come with being caught.
Moreover, the change in the strike zone that was instituted several seasons ago seems to be taking hold. Initially, umpires fought the idea that they should call strikes on pitches above the belt. Older umpires have begun to comply, and newer ones probably never had a problem with the new standard.
If lowering the mound a few inches had a dramatic effect on the offense, how much would the elimination of steroids and changing the strike zone alter the status quo? Plenty.
It's one thing for fans to watch this happen and for the media to write or talk about it. Managers and general managers have to deal with the consequences of big-picture modifications.
For now — when nobody is certain whether the trend will last — baseball operatives are likely to go with what has worked in the recent past. So how does that affect Wedge and Shapiro?
Should Wedge be thinking of altering the way he runs a game? Does a reduction in doubles and home runs mean he needs to emphasize the bunt, the hit-and-run and the stolen base? Will his team have to play for one run at a time?
''We've already done that,'' Wedge said. ''A lot of teams have. But obviously, you have to work off of your ballclub.''
And what about Shapiro? He has begun investigating the possibility of making a trade for a hitter. Should he look for an all-purpose offensive player, someone with the kind of skills displayed by Grady Sizemore? How about a power guy, even if that goes against the grain of what seems to be happening in the game? Should he seek out a slap hitter, someone who can run and steal bases?
Obviously, Shapiro will be limited no matter what his preference by the available options.
One thing is clear, however: If offense is destined to play a diminished role, the Indians — with seven big-league quality starters in the organization — are well-positioned to adapt to a new world order.
Sheldon Ocker can be reached at socker@thebeaconjournal.com.
It's the middle of May and the Indians still aren't hitting. Maybe they never will.
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