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NFL preview capsules — Week 1

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Dolphins at Browns

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Pick ’em.

The skinny: The Dolphins are 5-15-3 in their past 23 September games, but I expect good things from them this season. Worth a play here.

The pick: Dolphins.

Buccaneers at Jets

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Bucs by 3½.

The skinny: Trade their best player (Darrelle Revis) to Tampa Bay in April? Check. Draft a quarterback (Geno Smith) in the second round? Check. Allow your possible starting quarterback (Mark Sanchez) to get hurt in the fourth quarter of a meaningless preseason game? Check. I think Revis — who promised to “spill the beans” on the Jets’ offensive tendencies — leads a Bucs team that went 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2012 to a season-opening road win.

The pick: Bucs.

Patriots at Bills

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Patriots by 9½.

The skinny: The Patriots have had some major off-the-field issues, but they’re still the Patriots and they always seem to handle their business when it comes to on-the-field issues. That’s especially true in Buffalo: The Pats have covered 13 of their past 15 games there.

The pick: Patriots.

Bengals at Bears

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Bears by 3.

The skinny: I’m hoping my newfound admiration for the Bengals after watching HBO’s Hard Knocks doesn’t influence my picks. The Bengals were 5-1 against the spread last season when they were underdogs of four points or less.

The pick: Bengals.

Falcons at Saints

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Saints by 3.

The skinny: Welcome back, Sean Payton! We missed you last season, but not as much as your Saints, who went 7-9. A huge divisional game in Week 1, and maybe the best game of the weekend. The Saints are 11-3 against the Falcons since Payton took over in 2006.

The pick: Saints.

Seahawks at Panthers

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Seahawks by 3½.

The skinny: The Seahawks were 13-5 against the spread last season, including the playoffs. They can be shaky on the road (10-9-1 ATS last 20 road games), but I think their defense will be ready for Cam Newton & Co.

The pick: Seahawks.

Vikings at Lions

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Lions by 5.

The skinny: The key number here is 2,000. In fact, after Vikings running back Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards last season, he now has his sights set on ... wait for it ... 2,500! Another key number: The Vikings are 5-2-1 against the spread in their past eight games in Motown.

The pick: Vikings.

Raiders at Colts

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Colts by 9½.

The skinny: It doesn’t really matter who starts at quarterback for the Raiders. Why? Because the other team’s quarterback — Andrew Luck — will look to start Year 2 on a high note. Indianapolis has covered its past six home games.

The pick: Colts.

Chiefs at Jaguars

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Chiefs by 4.

The skinny: The Chiefs, under new coach Andy Reid, must improve on the road — 27-53 overall since 2003. They get a cupcake here against the Jags, who could very well be the NFL’s worst team.

The pick: Chiefs

Titans at Steelers.

Time: 1 p.m. today.

Line: Steelers by 7.

The skinny: The Titans were 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, but I think they’ll keep this one close enough against the Steelers, who ended last season 2-4-1 ATS in their final seven home games.

The pick: Titans.

Packers at 49ers

Time: 4:25 p.m. today.

Line: 49ers by 4½

The skinny: Packers linebacker Clay Matthews talked about putting hits “as early and often” on read-option quarterbacks such as the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick. Now, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is talking to the NFL to ensure his prized quarterback won’t become a target. Sorry, coach, he probably is. The 49ers are 13-5-1 against the spread at home since 2011, including the playoffs.

The pick: 49ers.

Cardinals at Rams

Time: 4:25 p.m. today.

Line: Rams by 4½.

The skinny: The Rams were 11-5 against the spread last season, but the Cardinals have won seven of their past eight in St. Louis. Look for Carson Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald to have a big season.

The pick: Cardinals.

Giants at Cowboys

Time: 8:30 p.m. today.

Line: Cowboys by 3½

The skinny: The Giants have won five of their past six in Dallas, including all four in the new stadium. The trend continues.

The pick: Giants.

Eagles at Redskins

Time: 7 p.m. Monday.

Line: Redskins by 3½.

The skinny: Everyone is excited about new Eagles coach Chip Kelly’s no-huddle offense. I’m just as terrified about his no-tackle defense.

The pick: Redskins.

Texans at Chargers

Time: 10:15 p.m. Monday.

Line: Texans by 4.

The skinny: The Chargers have a new coach, general manager and offensive coordinator, but that won’t help against the Texans.

The pick: Texans.

— John Boell, Newsday


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