PHILADELPHIA — There’s a good chance the next caller on your cellphone will try to take your money or steal your identity.

This grim statistic comes from First Orion, an Arkansas-based call management company that estimates nearly 30 percent of all cellphone calls came from scammers this year. The firm predicts nearly half of all mobile calls will be fraudulent in 2019.

The robocall scams often play on anxiety and greed, offering suspiciously cheap health insurance plans, “free” vacations, deferred student-loan payments, and, in one case, a job at Amazon that you can do from home.

The scam-call surge is driven by technology that has made it cheaper to place robocalls and easier to mask the scammers’ identities. “Neighborhood spoofing,” for example, allows scammers to place calls that appear to come from local numbers. First Orion predicts 9 in 10 scam calls will come from a familiar area code in 2019.

“These scammers are really sophisticated,” said Gavin Macomber, First Orion’s senior vice president of marketing and business development. “They do A-B testing like us marketers do it in the legitimate business world. If they try something and it works, they’ll keep doing it.”

The robocall epidemic has gotten so bad that the telecom industry is working on a fix that would verify the numbers of incoming calls as authentic and not spoofed, so consumers can trust their caller IDs again. T-Mobile says it’s ready to launch the technology, and Comcast is conducting limited employee trials and expects to deploy it to customers in 2019. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai recently demanded that the phone industry launch a call authentication system no later than next year

By far the most rampant robocall scams right now are health-care related, according to YouMail, a California company that offers free and paid robocall blocking applications. YouMail estimates there were nearly 500 million robocalls for health-care scams in October, making up nearly 10 percent of the 5.1 billion robocalls placed that month.

These identity-theft or payment scams are particularly effective because it’s open enrollment season for health insurance plans and consumers expect to share sensitive information when enrolling, said Alex Quilici, YouMail’s CEO.

A robocall scam that has spiked in recent weeks is like something out of a horror movie: The call is coming from inside the house.

Scammers make calls that appear to come from your own phone number, and they’ll pretend to be telecoms warning that an account has been locked or compromised, said Aaron Foss, founder of Nomorobo, an app that screens and blocks robocalls and is free for landlines and $1.99 per month for mobile. In some cases, the scammers already know whom they’re calling and are seeking more personal information.

“Your account has been flagged for security purposes,” said one robocall recorded by Nomorobo. “After the tone, please enter the last four digits of the primary account holder’s Social Security number.”

Cruise and vacation scams were the No. 1 reported scam call in a First Orion survey of 5,000 American mobile phone users conducted in June.

Typically, a scammer will pretend to offer a free or discounted vacation to Disney World or the Bahamas, telling victims they only need to pay a nominal booking fee to secure the deal, said Macomber, of First Orion, which offers a free call-blocking app for consumers.

“And then they’ll hit you for a credit card right there and then, and a lot of people give it to them,” he said.

The student loan debt crisis has inspired one of the most prevalent robocall scams. There were nearly 102 million student-loan-related robocall scams in October, the fourth-highest scam category that month, according to YouMail.

One scam falsely claims that the Department of Education is “no longer accepting entry into the federal student loan forgiveness program.” (The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program has rejected 98 percent of borrowers who applied for forgiveness since October 2017, so the scam sounds believable.)

“To place your file and long term forbearance and stop all future due payments, press five on your phone now,” the message says.

The ruse is similar to credit-card scams, in which scammers pretend to offer low interest rates in exchange for a credit card or Social Security number, Quilici said.